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FOREX-Dollar finds footing on U.S. economy as euro falters

Published 29/03/2021, 06:30
© Reuters.
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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USD/CHF
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* Dollar inches higher in Asia; EUR and JPY near major lows
* AUD, NZD begin to hand back small Friday gains
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, March 29 (Reuters) - The dollar began the week on
a firm footing, inching toward a milestone peak against the euro
on Monday, as a cautious market mood pushed investors to safety
while U.S. economic strength and a rapid vaccine rollout also
added to the greenback's shine.
The euro EUR= was down 0.1% in the Asia session at
$1.1783, not far above last week's four-and-a-half-month trough
of $1.1762 and well below its 200-day moving average of about
$1.1866.
The common currency is headed for its worst month since
mid-2019 as Europe's faltering vaccination programme runs into a
wave of new infections, a bearish signal as positioning data
shows investors remain heavily long euros. 0#NETUSDFX=
"The euro has continued to fall ... even as long-term U.S.
yields have lost some upward momentum," analysts at MUFG Bank
said in a note. "It suggests euro weakness was driven more by
concerns over the weakening outlook for growth in the eurozone
in light of rising COVID cases."
Virus-driven caution also helped the dollar higher against
the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and sterling and it
rose against oil-liked currencies as the re-floating of the ship
blocking the Suez Canal pushed crude prices down by about 1.5%.
Concern in equity markets at the widening fallout from a
wave of liquidations linked to investment fund Archegos Capital
also put investors in a careful mindset.
Only the safe-haven Japanese yen JPY= made headway,
scraping from a 10-month low it made on Friday to inch about
0.2% higher to 109.43 -- though along with the Swiss franc it
remains at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard this year.
Over the quarter, the dollar has posted a 0.7% loss on the
pound, which has been supported by Britain's speedy vaccination
rollout, a 0.8% gain on the Australian dollar and a 2.9% gain
against the kiwi, which has been hit by housing market reforms.
The yen, which is sensitive to gaps in returns on U.S. and
Japanese government debt has fallen about 5.7%, its worst
quarterly performance since late 2016, while the franc is down
5.8% for its worst performance since the third quarter of 2014.
This year's 76-basis-point rise in benchmark 10-year
Treasury yields - as the U.S. economy rebounds - has been a
large driver, as the better returns offer carry for investors
who can borrow the yen and franc very cheaply.
The Aussie AUD=D3 was last down 0.3% at $0.7621 on Monday
and the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 had dropped 0.3% to $0.6978,
while sterling GBP= slipped 0.2% to $1.3767.
"The U.S. is also being helped on its own by some pretty
good economic data, fantastic rollout of vaccines, good pace of
vaccination and (positive) stock markets," said Westpac currency
analyst Imre Speizer.
"The domestic economy is doing better than expected and
likely to be the case for the next few months, so that might
hold the U.S. dollar up and that's what's caused the Aussie,
kiwi and emerging-market currencies to pullback in March."
U.S. jobless claims fell to a one-year low last week and
President Joe Biden said he would double his vaccination goal,
after surpassing 100 million shots 42 days ahead of schedule.
In contrast, European inoculations have been hit by supply
problems and safety concerns.
Investors are looking ahead to Purchasing Managers Index
figures due midweek and for some details of Biden's
infrastructure spending plan. However the main data will be U.S.
hiring figures due on Good Friday.
"The distribution of forecasts range from 460,000 to 1
million (jobs), where the whisper number sits at the top end of
the range," said Pepperstone's head of research, Chris Weston.
"One million jobs would set the reflation trades alight ...
and cause a solid sell-off in bond yields taking USD/JPY and
USD/CHF higher," he said. "The euro should push through last
weeks lows of 1.1761 and towards 1.1690."

========================================================
Currency bid prices at 0527 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.1777 $1.1794 -0.14% -3.61% +1.1795 +1.1775
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 109.4200 109.6650 -0.23% +5.93% +109.7950 +109.3950
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 128.86 129.33 -0.36% +1.53% +129.4200 +128.8500
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9395 0.9393 +0.03% +6.20% +0.9402 +0.9395
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.3768 1.3799 -0.23% +0.77% +1.3799 +1.3766
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2621 1.2571 +0.41% -0.88% +1.2627 +1.2578
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.7623 0.7642 -0.25% -0.90% +0.7645 +0.7619
NZ NZD=D3 0.6979 0.7000 -0.29% -2.81% +0.6995 +0.6975
Dollar/Dollar


All spots FX=
Tokyo spots AFX=
Europe spots EFX=
Volatilities FXVOL=
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ TKYFX

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World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
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