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FOREX-Dollar holds gains on better U.S. outlook vs Europe

Published 02/02/2021, 21:27
Updated 02/02/2021, 21:30
© Reuters.
USD/SEK
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DX
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* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By David Henry
NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to two-month highs against the
euro on Tuesday as markets saw the U.S. as likely to rebound sooner than Europe
from the coronavirus pandemic.
The view was bolstered by moves in Washington toward more stimulus spending
that contrasted with European lockdowns and expectations for a decline in euro
zone GDP in the first three months of this year. Against the dollar, the euro EUR=EBS was trading at $1.202 in the
afternoon in New York afternoon, down almost to an early December low, and off
0.32% for the day as well as down 1.61% for the year.
"Growth differentials are taking a toll on the euro and adding to the
traction that we've seen for the U.S. currency this year," said Joe Manimbo,
senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.
"Europe might be about a year behind the U.S. in terms of a full recovery,"
he said.
The dollar index =USD gained 0.25% as U.S. and European stock indexes
rose global stocks rose nearly 2% and oil jumped 2% to the highest levels in a
year. Initial European Union economic readings showed the euro zone contracted
less than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020 but suggested that a steeper
decline in the first quarter of this year. Those concerns were amplified after retail sales in Germany, Europe's
biggest economy, plunged by more than forecast in December, according to data on
Monday.
"Things are looking even more depressing here," Commerzbank strategists said
in a daily note.
Supporting the dollar on Tuesday were steps by Democrats in Congress toward
fast-track passage of U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief
package even without Republican support.
The dollar has also benefited from a massive bout of short-covering,
especially against the yen, where hedge funds had racked up their biggest short
bets against the greenback since October 2016.
Against the yen, the dollar JPY=EBS hovered above 105 yen after briefly
crossing the level on Monday for the first time since mid-November.
Many see the dollar's rebound since early last month as a correction after a
relentless decline - the dollar index lost almost 7% in 2020 - on expectations
of a global recovery from the pandemic with massive fiscal spending and
continued ultra-easy monetary policy.
Still, Manimbo said the dollar's move may be short-lived.
"If the U.S. can start to see better labor market data, that would make for
a more convincing rally," he said.
The next monthly U.S. payroll report is due on Friday.

========================================================
Currency bid prices at 3:02PM (2002 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index =USD 91.1900 90.9720 +0.25% 1.326% +91.2830 +90.8050
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.2020 $1.2060 -0.32% -1.61% +$1.2088 +$1.2012
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 105.0700 104.9150 +0.11% +1.69% +105.1650 +104.9000
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 126.29 126.56 -0.21% -0.50% +126.8200 +126.2700
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.8987 0.8969 +0.20% +1.58% +0.8995 +0.8947
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 $1.3651 $1.3662 -0.07% -0.07% +$1.3709 +$1.3611
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2806 1.2858 -0.42% +0.55% +1.2869 +1.2785
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 $0.7590 $0.7622 -0.41% -1.33% +$0.7661 +$0.7564
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.0802 1.0818 -0.15% -0.05% +1.0832 +1.0800
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8803 0.8825 -0.25% -1.50% +0.8837 +0.8796
NZ NZD=D3 $0.7155 $0.7158 -0.01% -0.33% +$0.7192 +$0.7136
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway NOK=D3 8.6175 8.6000 +0.32% +0.47% +8.6495 +8.5595
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 10.3622 10.3770 -0.14% -1.01% +10.4045 +10.3307
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 8.4161 8.4253 -0.45% +2.68% +8.4465 +8.3931
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.1168 10.1628 -0.45% +0.40% +10.1720 +10.1115

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World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
USD positions https://tmsnrt.rs/36zTIAb
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