FOREX-Dollar pressured by Fed rate cut expectations

Published 25/02/2020, 09:57
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar pressured by Fed rate cut expectations
DX
-

* Euro/dollar stays above $1.08

* Japanese yen get back safe-haven properties, rises

slightly

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar stayed soft on

Tuesday amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut

interest rates this year to curb downside pressure on the

economy caused by China's coronavirus outbreak.

The dollar initially rose as the virus spread further around

the world, with investors eyeing all U.S. assets as safe-haven

investments. However, money managers now think the Fed would be

more likely to easy monetary policy and cut rates given that it

benefits from the biggest room to do it.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar was 0.2% weaker at

99.19 =USD , drifting away from the three-year high reached

last week. However, without much good news on the virus, few

expect the dollar to give back too much of its recent gains.

The euro was last up 0.1% at $1.0863 EUR=EBS , drifting

away from the three-year low it fell to last week, sending it

below $1.07 as money flooded into the safe-haven dollar.

Market gauges of implied volatility in euro/dollar eased off

a bit on Tuesday after rising to their highest since October on

Monday. EUR1MO=FN

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday that

clusters of coronavirus cases had emerged in the country and

that the government would take stronger steps to fight

contagion, giving Asian investors another reason to stay cool on

the yen, which has been tripped off its safe-haven status

recently. The yen last traded up 0.2% at 110.53 per dollar JPY=EBS .

China, meanwhile, reported a rise in new coronavirus cases

in Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak, even though

the rest of the country saw a fourth-straight day of declines.

South Korea, which has the most virus cases in Asia outside

China, reported 60 new cases on Tuesday, increasing the total

number of infected patients there to 893 - leaving few to expect

the region's currencies to do more than hold steady for now.

China's yuan was last up 0.2% at 7.0225 per U.S. dollar in

the offshore market, a five-day high. CNH=EBS

Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, said he expected

"some downside risk for the U.S. dollar" going further given the

Fed's potential dovish shift in policy.

Market participants continue to build up expectations for

further Fed easing, with money markets pricing in a 25 basis

points cut for the meeting in June. FEDWATCH=

For the year as a whole, traders expect the central bank to

lower rates to between 1% and 1.25%, down from the current 1.5%

to 1.75% range.

Implied volatility on the rise https://tmsnrt.rs/2TaLpU0

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