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FOREX-Dollar recovers slightly on hopes for stimulus following oil and virus shock

Published 10/03/2020, 01:52
Updated 10/03/2020, 01:54
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar recovers slightly on hopes for stimulus following oil and virus shock
ESZ24
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US10YT=X
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* Tracking the coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7

* Dollar recovers but sentiment is fragile

* Policymakers responding to external shocks

* Fed rate cut bets show more downside for greenback

By Stanley White

TOKYO, March 10 (Reuters) - The dollar recovered slightly on

Tuesday from heavy losses against the yen, the euro, and the

Swiss franc due to hopes for U.S. economic stimulus and a bounce

in Treasury yields.

The greenback started to grind higher as U.S. stock futures

rose after U.S. President Donald Trump said the White House will

hold news conference on Tuesday about economic measures in

response to the coronavirus outbreak.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin also said the White

House would hold a meeting with bank executives this week in a

sign the U.S. government is preparing to roll out more measures

to soften the blow from the spread of the flu-like virus.

However, analysts say it is too early to call a bottom in

the dollar, which was pummelled on Monday after a price war

between Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered the biggest daily rout

in oil prices since the 1991 Gulf War.

"Expectations for a coordinated policy response are

something that is evolving and ultimately this could help," said

Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank

in Sydney.

"But in the short term the dollar is driven by expectations

for U.S. Federal Reserve easing."

The dollar rose 0.63% to 102.34 yen JPY=EBS , pulling back

from the lowest in more than three years.

Against the euro EUR=EBS , the greenback rose 0.24% to

$1.1400 after falling on Monday to its lowest in more than a

year against the common currency.

The dollar rose 0.36% to 0.9283 Swiss franc CHF=EBS on

Tuesday after three days of heavy selling pushed it to the

lowest in almost five years. Data suggests the Swiss National

Bank is now ramping up its market interventions to weaken its

currency. Against the pound GBP=D3 , the dollar rose 0.39% to

$1.3075.

The dollar gradually accelerated after U.S. stock futures

opened higher ESc1 and Treasury yields US10YT=RR climbed off

record lows.

Oil futures also rose in Asia on Tuesday in a sign that

financial markets are trying to regain some composure, but many

traders warn that recent turmoil has been so dramatic that risks

are still tilted to the downside.

Financial markets, which were already reeling as investors

counted the mounting economic costs of a global coronavirus

epidemic, were dealt another severe blow on Monday by the sharp

sell-off in crude prices.

Money markets show the Fed, which already stunned investors

with a surprise 50 basis point rate cut last week, is likely to

ease policy further in the future. FEDWATCH

The Fed is also injecting cash into the banking system in a

sign of underlying financing stress in the world's largest

economy. Expectations for Fed easing are likely to bring the dollar

and U.S. yields back down, but for the time being on Tuesday the

greenback got a brief respite.

The currencies of oil-producing countries also managed to

rise slightly after receiving a mauling on Monday.

The Russian rouble RUB=EBS rose 0.5% against the dollar.

The Norwegian krone NOK=D3 also rose 0.2%. The Canadian dollar

CAD=D3 gained 0.1%, pulling back slightly from its lowest

since 2017.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 , which is closely tied to the

global commodity trade and China's economy, rose 0.17% to

$0.6592. However, the New Zealand dollar NXD=D3 was little

changed at $0.6335.

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