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FOREX-Dollar squeezed as data stokes economic recovery hopes

Published 24/06/2020, 05:55
© Reuters.
USD/JPY
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* Eurozone PMI data boosts recovery hopes
* AUD leads gains with small rise
* Kiwi dips after RBNZ's dovish hold
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, June 24 (Reuters) - The dollar was under pressure
on Wednesday, after upbeat data in Europe boosted the euro and
helped stoke hopes for a global economic recovery, underpinning
appetite for riskier currencies.
The euro EUR=EBS is headed for its best month against the
dollar since October, and inched higher to $1.1316 in the Asia
session. The Australian dollar AUD=D3 led small gains in
risk-sensitive currencies, firming about 0.2% to $0.6942. AUD/

IHS Markit's June euro zone Flash Composite Purchasing
Managers' Index, a broad gauge of economic activity, beat
expectations with a bounce to 47.5 on Tuesday from May's 31.9.
Although that is still below the 50 mark separating growth
from contraction, the improvement in business sentiment -
together with upbeat data in Britain and the United States -
lent support to a sense that growth is returning at pace.
The next test comes from a German business confidence survey
due at 0800 GMT, with markets expecting another strong rebound.
In the meantime, the positive signals seem enough to offset
worries about a resurgence in U.S. coronavirus cases, and to
draw bets - reflected in a rising gold price - on broad dollar
weakness.
Against a basket of currencies =USD the dollar was flat at
96.653, just above a one-week low touched on Tuesday. The
trade-exposed Korean won KRW= was up half a percent and the
Aussie's rise put it near the top of a range it has held for
weeks.
"We're still seeing the counteracting forces of the economic
recovery on the one hand and concerns around the virus spreading
on the other hand," said Kim Mundy, FX analyst at the
Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
"But overnight the Eurozone PMIs lifted, PMIs in the UK
lifted and PMIs in the U.S. lifted, so the economic story, that
we are seeing the recovery, is helping to underpin the commodity
currencies."
The British pound found support, recovering from a
three-month low touched against the euro on Tuesday EURGBP=
and holding steady against the dollar GBP=D3 at $1.2514.
The yen JPY= held on to overnight gains at 106.53 per
dollar, reflecting caution and also corporate flows as
investment juggernaut SoftBank 9984.T started a $21 billion
sale of its stake in U.S. telco T-Mobile TMUS.O . Against the tide, the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 dipped to
$0.6468 after the country's central bank said the balance of
economic risks remains to the downside and it is prepared to use
additional monetary tools as necessary. The RBNZ kept interest rates on hold, as expected.

NEVER MIND THE VIRUS, HERE COMES MORE STIMULUS
The moves extend markets' stubborn optimism in the face of
spiking coronavirus cases in the United States, Germany and
elsewhere.
For a second week Texas, Arizona and Nevada set records in
their coronavirus outbreaks and 10 other states from Florida to
California were grappling with surging infections. Australia's Victoria state has re-imposed restrictions on
gatherings amid an upswing in new cases there and German has
imposed localised lockdowns after an outbreak at a meatpacking
plant. So far the market assumes there is a very high bar to
shutting down entire economies again, so the impact on business
activity will not be too great - at least as yet.
"We expect over the coming couple of weeks as we get more
clarity on this, state Governors will be in a better position to
decide how to proceed," RBC Capital Markets' Chief U.S.
Economist, Tom Porcelli, said of the U.S. cases.
"For now, we have not seen any negative shift in consumer
behaviour as a result."
Remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin,
flagging more fiscal stimulus aimed at getting people back to
work quickly, also helped the positive mood.

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