Asia FX subdued amid Fed rate cut bets; US PCE inflation awaited

Published 29/08/2025, 05:08
Updated 29/08/2025, 05:12
© Reuters.

Investing.com-- Asian currencies edged lower on Friday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation to assess U.S. rate cut bets for September, while the Indian rupee neared record lows amid pressure from secondary U.S. tariffs.

Regional market participants also assessed Tokyo inflation data and other economic indicators from Japan to gauge BOJ rate hike bets.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.2% in Asia hours, but was set to lose nearly 2% for the month.

US Dollar Index Futures also traded 0.2% higher as of 03:12 GMT.

Markets assess Fed cut bets amid independence worries

President Donald Trump this week initiated an unprecedented move by attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged mortgage fraud from 2021. 

Cook has rejected Trump’s authority to remove her and has filed a lawsuit challenging the dismissal. 

The controversy has raised concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. Analysts worry that politicizing the central bank could undermine its credibility and stability. The U.S. dollar has weakened in response to the uncertainty, and markets are closely watching the legal proceedings.

“The Cook issue looks set to be tied up in court for the remainder of the year, with the key point being whether she can continue to vote on the FOMC during this period,” ING analysts said in a note.

Despite growing worries, forex moves have been limited as investors remain optimistic about the potential for Fed easing next month.

Traders are currently pricing in more than 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.

Traders await the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due later in the day. The data is anticipated to provide further clarity on the Fed’s potential interest rate cut.

Tokyo CPI in focus; Indian rupee near record low

The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair inched 0.1% higher. Data on Friday showed that Tokyo’s consumer inflation eased in August as expected, but sticky underlying price pressures kept alive bets that the Bank of Japan may deliver further rate hikes.

Other data showed that Japan’s factory output fell more than expected in July amid tariff headwinds, while retail sales figures disappointed.

In China, the yuan’s onshore pair USD/CNY was little changed, while the offshore pair USD/CNH ticked 0.1% higher.

The Singapore dollar’s USD/SGD ticked 0.1% higher, while the South Korean won’s USD/KRW gained 0.2%

The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair remained largely unchanged.

The Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair edged 0.2% higher on Friday and was set for a 0.5% weekly gain, nearing record high levels of 87.99 rupees.

An additional 25% U.S. tariff on Indian imports took effect Wednesday, doubling the total duty to 50% from August 27, in response to India’s continued purchases of Russian crude. 

The rupee has been under continued pressure since May amid Trump’s tariff salvos. It was set for its fourth consecutive monthly decline, and has fallen for eight weeks in the previous nine.

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