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FOREX-Dollar stumbles as coronavirus ramps up Fed cut bets

Published 28/02/2020, 02:17
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar stumbles as coronavirus ramps up Fed cut bets
USD/CHF
-

* Euro soars as Fed cut expectations hit dollar

* Money markets price 3 Fed cuts by July

* Euro/dollar volatility surges

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses on

Friday after its worst day against the euro in nearly two years,

as the global spread of the coronavirus fired up expectations

for a U.S. rate cut and pushed the hunt for yield elsewhere.

The worsening outbreak now has money markets all but certain

the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark lending rate next

month, which was priced as just a 9% chance only a week ago.

FEDWATCH

Futures pricing shows investors now expect three Fed cuts by

mid year, as stock markets have crumbled to be on track for

their worst week since the depths of the 2008 crisis. 0#FF:

That shift in pricing, coupled with a plunge in U.S.

Treasury yields, makes owning dollars less appealing and sent

the euro 1% higher on the greenback overnight as investors

unwound carry trades.

"People were getting comfortable in understanding why the

dollar was so strong," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at

National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"That is, U.S. equities powering ahead, the U.S. economy

looking better than other parts of the world and yields looking

impenetrably attractive. All of the above are to some extent

being questioned now," he said.

At the same time, European Central Bank policymakers played

down immediate prospects of easier policy there. On Friday, the dollar was steady at $1.1001 per euro, just

above a three week low, and headed for its biggest weekly loss

on the single currency since last June.

It also dropped 0.9% against the Swiss franc overnight

CHF= , as the spread of the virus to the United States had

investors preferring the franc as a safe haven. The huge shift in money markets also stemmed the flight of

capital out of Asian and commodity currencies and in to dollars.

EMRG/FRX

The heavily sold Australian and New Zealand dollars, each

down more than 6% against the greenback this year, steadied on

Friday.

The Aussie AUD=D3 last bought $0.6569 and the kiwi

NZD=D3 $0.6292.

A great deal is still unknown about the virus itself, but it

is clear that it can be lethal and that the pathogen and

measures to contain it are wreaking havoc on supply chains, the

world's economy and financial markets. MKTS/GLOB

More than 2,700 people have died. The World Health

Organization said overnight that every country should be bracing

for more cases. World share prices are headed for their worst week since the

darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis and everyone is on

edge.

One-month volatility seen in euro/dollar options, which was

near record lows, has shot up to its highest since early October

EUR1MO= , posting its steepest rise in nearly three years over

the week.

"While markets have already moved considerably, until the

virus data says otherwise, the trading strategies should

probably still err (towards safety)," Deutsche Bank strategist

Alan Ruskin said in a note. "Buy gold, short oil," he said.

"Initially, the USD weakness is expected to be only modest

versus alternatives like the yen, franc and euro; and, the

dollar should strengthen versus commodity FX and emerging

markets' currencies."

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