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FOREX-Dollar wavers as traders tire of 'headline ping-pong'

Published 05/12/2019, 05:20
Updated 05/12/2019, 05:27
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar wavers as traders tire of 'headline ping-pong'
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* Dollar's Trump bump runs out of puff

* Kiwi hits 4-month high as rate-cut expectations ebb

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The dollar wobbled on Thursday

as an earlier boost from upbeat trade comments by U.S. President

Donald Trump ran out of steam and investors remained on edge

over Sino-U.S. tensions.

In a fillip to sentiment overnight, Trump said talks to

resolve the damaging trade war with China were going "very

well". Bloomberg also reported that the two sides are moving

closer to an agreement, citing people familiar with the talks.

However, with no official reassurance from the Chinese on

Thursday, and only a day after Trump said a deal might not come

until after the 2020 presidential election, the recovery

promptly stalled in Asian trade.

"It's too soon to say whether it's a rebound or a dead-cat

bounce, that's the way I look at risk at the moment," said Matt

Simpson, a senior market analyst at Gain Capital in Singapore.

Movements in major currencies were modest. The safe-haven

Japanese yen JPY= steadied at 108.84 per dollar, while the

Swiss franc CHF= inched higher to 0.9879 per dollar.

The euro EUR= firmed marginally against the dollar to

$1.1084, which pushed the greenback down 0.1% against a basket

of currencies .DXY to 97.551.

The British pound crept back to the eight-month high hit

overnight as expectations firmed that Prime Minister Boris

Johnson would win a majority at next week's election.

The focus remained on trade news, or the lack of it, with

investors also looking ahead to non-farm payrolls data on Friday

as a possible source of further disappointment with the state of

the U.S. economy.

"I thought the markets had stopped playing headline ping-

pong on trade, but evidently not," said National Australia

Bank's head FX strategist, Ray Attrill. "Another day, another

reversal of what happened the previous day."

TRANS-TASMAN DIVERGENCE

Elsewhere, domestic factors moved the Antipodean currencies

in opposite directions. The Australian dollar AUD=D3 slipped 0.2% to $0.6838 after

softer-than-expected retail sales data. The kiwi NZD= climbed by the same margin to a four-month

high, after softer-than-expected banking reforms led to a

reduction in rate-cut expectations.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted bank capital

requirements, but not as much as some investors had feared. The

long implementation time has also reduced expectations that

monetary easing might be needed to offset the hike's tightening

effects. "A softening in the proposals, combined with a more positive

domestic outlook...mean we are changing our Official Cash Rate

(OCR) call to only one further 25bp OCR cut, in May next year,

taking the OCR to 0.75%," ANZ analysts said in an emailed note.

The kiwi added 0.4% to $0.6555, its highest since August,

and has put on more than a cent this week as business sentiment

there has rebounded as well.

Against the Aussie, the kiwi has gained about 3% in a month

to stand at a four-month high of NZ$1.0457 per A$1 AUDNZD= .

The Canadian dollar CAD=D3 hit a one-month high of $1.3203

per greenback after the country's central bank held interest

rates steady and said there were signs the global economy was

stabilising. A rise in oil prices also supported the exporter's currency,

and lifted the Norwegian krone NOK= slightly to 9.1643 per

dollar. O/R

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