FOREX-Euro falls as markets unimpressed with ECB stimulus; dollar up sharply

Published 12/03/2020, 16:01
Updated 12/03/2020, 16:09
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro falls as markets unimpressed with ECB stimulus; dollar up sharply
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* Euro falls after ECB decides not to cut rates

* Dollar jumps, analysts cite swap spread rise

* Safe havens like the yen and franc remain in demand

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Adds new comment, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - The euro weakened on Thursday, as investors were unimpressed by the

European Central Bank's stimulus measures to fight the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak.

Investors instead flocked to safe-haven currencies such as the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.

The ECB approved fresh stimulus measures on Thursday to help the euro zone economy cope with the

growing cost of the coronavirus epidemic, but kept interest rates unchanged "The ECB has been grasping for straws," said Erik Bregar, head of FX strategy, at Exchange Bank of

Canada, in Toronto.

"Arguably they still don't know what to do. But they very much felt the pressure to at least do

something because every other central bank is lowering interest rates or doing multi-policy fronts that

will help banks and businesses."

The fact that the ECB did not cut interest rates was a "minor surprise" for the market given that the

money market curve had priced in a 10 basis-point easing.

In mid-morning trading, the euro fell more than 1% to $1.1172 EUR=EBS

The dollar rebounded sharply after the ECB announcement, and was last up 1% against a basket of

currencies at 97.513 =USD

Analysts said the dollar had rallied as swap spreads on major currencies blew out and investors

scrambled for the U.S. currency.

"It's all about dollar liquidity, the cross-curency basis swap has blown out. I would assume it's

banks/corporates driven. We are moving to the next phase of the selloff," said Kenneth Broux, a strategist

at Societe Generale.

The dollar had earlier struggled after U.S. President Donald Trump banned travel from Europe to stem

the coronavirus.

With the latest ban posing a fresh disruption to the global economy, traders were also disappointed by

the lack of broad measures in Trump's plan to fight the pathogen, prompting traders to bet on further

aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve.

Money markets are now expecting another 100 bps of easing from the Fed by next week taking the

benchmark policy interest rates to zero after a hefty half point rate cut last week.

The dollar fell 0.5% against the Japanese currency JPY=EBS to 105.18, below a four-year low on

Monday, but it rose 1% against the Swiss franc to 0.9478 CHF=EBS .

Risk aversion was the dominant theme in currency markets on Thursday as Asian, European, and U.S.

stock markets were a sea of red, forcing traders to stampede out of currencies heavily geared to the

global economy such as the Norwegian crown NOK= and the Australian dollar. AUD=

Trump announced on Wednesday a ban on travellers from 26 European countries entering the United States

for a month.

He unveiled economic steps to counter the virus but his address from the Oval Office was light on

medical measures beyond assurances that "the virus has no chance against us".

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 10:47/AM (1447 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1147 $1.1267 -1.07% -0.58% +1.1333 +1.1134

Dollar/Yen JPY= 105.1200 104.5300 +0.56% -3.44% +105.4900 +103.1100

Euro/Yen EURJPY= 117.16 117.73 -0.48% -3.93% +118.0100 +116.3200

Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9477 0.9387 +0.96% -2.08% +0.9492 +0.9323

Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2620 1.2820 -1.56% -4.81% +1.2849 +1.2585

Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3808 1.3776 +0.23% +6.33% +1.3853 +1.3752

Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6335 0.6484 -2.30% -9.77% +0.6492 +0.6322

Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.0566 1.0574 -0.08% -2.64% +1.0579 +1.0545

Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8831 0.8790 +0.47% +4.45% +0.8913 +0.8776

NZ NZD= 0.6161 0.6267 -1.69% -8.54% +0.6277 +0.6153

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway NOK= 10.1447 9.6906 +4.69% +15.56% +10.2450 +9.6889

Euro/Norway EURNOK= 11.3192 10.9190 +3.67% +14.95% +11.4346 +10.9054

Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.7720 9.5158 +1.57% +4.55% +9.7877 +9.5016

Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.8908 10.7227 +1.57% +4.03% +10.9476 +10.7284

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