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FOREX-Euro weakens vs dollar as Treasury yields pick up on stimulus talks

Published 20/08/2019, 09:17
FOREX-Euro weakens vs dollar as Treasury yields pick up on stimulus talks
EUR/USD
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USD/CNY
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DX
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US10YT=X
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DXY
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USD/CNH
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US2US10=RR
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* Chinese yuan matched earlier a six-day low vs dollar

* Pound weaker against the euro, stable vs dollar

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The euro hovered around a

two-week low versus the dollar as the U.S. currency held strong

on Tuesday, boosted by slightly higher Treasury yields, while

political uncertainties in Italy also kept the common currency

subdued.

Yields on U.S. benchmark 10-year government bonds pulled

away from three-year lows US10YT=RR , helped in part by the

prospect of Germany ditching its balanced budget rule to boost

spending and on more economic support measures by China.

Yields fell last week to cause an inversion of the

short-dated and long-dated yield curve, sending alarms through

financial markets given that several recessions in the past have

been preceded by yield curve inversions. The curve of the

two-year and 10-year Treasury yields was slightly steeper on

Tuesday US2US10=RR .

"The dollar is higher across the board, tracking the rebound

in yields. The prospect of Germany embarking on stimulus was the

turning point and the dollar has regained momentum since," said

Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

The dollar index was flat at 98.385 .DXY after rising to a

two-and-a-half week high of 98.40 earlier.

The euro was also flat at $1.1078 EUR=EBS , but not far

from the $1.1066 low it reached on Friday on lingering concerns

over political developments in Italy.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is set to address parliament

on Tuesday afternoon (1300 GMT) to defend his record. He might

hand in his resignation immediately afterwards or could instead

wait for a formal vote to make it clear he is being unseated by

the far-right League. A vote has not yet been scheduled and

there is widespread uncertainty over how the political turmoil

will end

Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini pulled the plug on the

ruling coalition Movement earlier this month, hoping to trigger

early elections that would likely see him crowned as prime

minister.

"The possible success of the no-confidence vote in Italy

today could push euro/dollar towards and even below the

psychological 1.1000 level today," said Chris Turner, head of

forex strategy at ING.

"Though falls are unlikely to meaningful or persistent," he

said, "because the negative spillover into the euro from periods

of political uncertainty in Europe has been somewhat limited

over the past year."

Elsewhere, a stronger dollar pushed the offshore Chinese

yuan lower to have it match a six-day low of 7.0770 against the

greenback earlier, though China's offshore yuan was last trading

neutral at 7.0708 CNH=EBS .

The pound was down by 0.3% both against the dollar and the

euro, last at $1.2092 GBP=D3 and at 91.55 pence against the

euro EURGBP=D3 .

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made new waves by

writing to European Council President Donald Tusk on Monday to

propose replacing the Irish backstop with a commitment to put in

place alternative arrangements by the end of a post-Brexit

transition period. Johnson will meet both French President Emmanuel Macron and

German Chancellor Angela Merkel during the week and is also

planning to meet Ireland's Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in

September.

Market focus should shift to the annual symposium of global

central bankers starting on Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

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