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FOREX-FX volatility surges as yen jumps; commodity currencies slump

Published 09/03/2020, 10:07
Updated 09/03/2020, 10:10
FOREX-FX volatility surges as yen jumps; commodity currencies slump
EUR/USD
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USD/MXN
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* Yen soars to three-year high with 3% jump

* Euro jumps more than 1% as U.S. yields crater

* FX volatility surges as carry trades unwound

* Oil-exposed currencies plunge

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tommy Wilkes and Tom Westbrook

LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - The dollar fell 3%

against the Japanese yen and commodity-linked currencies tanked

on Monday, as a 30% crash in the oil price and tumbling stock

markets panicked investors and sent currency prices swinging

wildly.

A gauge of volatility in the euro/dollar market - the

world's most-traded currency pair - shot to its highest since

April 2017 as the euro surged more than 1% to its strongest

since January 2019.

Dollar-yen one-month implied volatility surged to an 11-year

high at 8.8% JPY1MO=FN as the dollar slid to its weakest since

2016.

Investors are dumping dollars because of the collapse in

U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark yield is at 0.47%, after

trading above 1% a few days earlier, as traders shed risky

assets and head for the safety of government bond markets.

Oil prices fell 30% after Saudi Arabia pledged to slash

prices and boost production following the collapse of an OPEC

supply agreement. O/R

That unnerved investors already rattled by more than a weak

of wild moves in markets, as they struggled to assess the

economic damage caused by the coronavirus.

"Financial markets have suffered a rude awakening to notions

that volatility was a thing of the past. We're now seeing the

kind of market dislocation not witnessed since the 2008-09

global financial crisis," ING analysts said, describing the

set-up as a "perfect storm" for currency markets.

"This all conspires to deliver an extreme flight to safety,

into the likes of the JPY and the CHF," they wrote.

In hectic trade, the dollar fell 3% against the yen to

101.58 JPY=EBS , its lowest in more than three years. The euro

EUR= was last up 1% at $1.1408 after earlier touching $1.1495.

The dollar index dropped to its weakest since September 2018

before recovering somewhat to trade at 95.181, down 0.3% =USD .

The Swiss franc added nearly 1% against the dollar CHF=EBS

but was flat versus the euro EURCHF=EBS .

Some of the biggest moves were in currencies linked to oil

prices.

Norway's crown tumbled to record lows. The euro added nearly

5% to 10.997 EURNOK=D3 and the dollar gained more than 3% to

9.5455 crowns NOK=D3 . Canada's dollar dropped 1.3% to C$1.3606

CAD=D3 . The Russian rouble RUB= and Mexican peso MXN= each

fell as much as 6% against the dollar.

The Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand NZD=D3 dollars

fell nearly 2%.

"It is totally wild," said Shafali Sachdev, head of FX Asia

at BNP Paribas Wealth Management in Singapore. "This is not a

train I want to be getting in front of, and how long it

continues and where it goes from here is going to depend on how

the situation evolves."

Further stock decline could drive even more gains in funding

currencies, she said.

So far, the yen is headed for its largest three-day gain

since the 2008 financial crisis. It is up 9.4% in a dozen

trading days.

The gain is bad news for exporters and has raised concerns

among policymakers in Japan. A senior finance official warned

that authorities were closely watching trade.

In times of low volatility - and currency market volatility

has been at or near record lows for several years - investors

borrow heavily in low- or negative-yielding currencies like the

euro and yen to buy higher-yielding FX elsewhere.

Sudden risk aversion and volatility send investors panicking

to reverse those positions, causing wild moves in currencies.

U.S. dollar vs Japanese yen https://tmsnrt.rs/3cHaTBt

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