German budget surprise shifts investor sentiment amid USD shorts

Published 11/07/2025, 10:54
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Investing.com -- The U.S. dollar short position remains both the most crowded trade and highest conviction view among investors, according to Bank of America’s latest foreign exchange survey.

On a statistical basis, the dollar underweight position stands out significantly when measured against both one-year and full history horizons. Interestingly, positioning is viewed as the biggest obstacle to dollar performance, which seems counterintuitive but may indicate investors believe there’s still room for dollar shorts to extend further.

Despite concerns about the crowded nature of this trade, dollar short positioning has only moderated slightly in the latest survey. The data shows that risk-taking continues to be much more concentrated in foreign exchange markets than in duration trades.

The German budget positively surprised survey respondents, leading to higher inflation expectations and reduced euro duration long positions.

Meanwhile, emerging market positioning strengthened broadly across all categories, including emerging market currencies, local debt, and external debt. These positions have reached levels that may warrant caution, according to the report.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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