Oil prices steady near 1-mth high on US-Iran sanctions; OPEC+ meeting awaited
Investing.com - Goldman Sachs has updated its foreign exchange projections for the USD/CNY, noting that recent yuan strength appears to be policy-driven rather than market-led, according to a new research report released Thursday.
The investment bank highlighted that unlike previous episodes of yuan appreciation, the current strengthening occurred when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was stable rather than rising, and when both onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) yuan were trading weaker than the official fixing rate.
Goldman Sachs pointed to a jump in the foreign exchange conversion ratio in July as further evidence of the interplay between policy intentions and market participant responses, suggesting both cyclical and structural factors are driving the trend.
The report indicated the Chinese yuan continues to screen as significantly undervalued, with the degree of undervaluation now comparable to the period of the "China shock" in the mid-2000s, while recent economic performance—including large export market share gains and a surge in the current account surplus—help corroborate these model estimates.
Goldman Sachs suggested continued yuan adjustments appear likely against a backdrop of shifting dollar demand, with implications across foreign exchange markets as it reduces pressure on the Euro to provide dollar depreciation and because the yuan serves as an important regional anchor for low-yielding currencies in both emerging markets and G10.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.