Potential Ukraine ceasefire to boost EEMEA currencies

Published 02/03/2025, 12:04
© Reuters

Investing.com -- A potential ceasefire in Ukraine could provide a significant boost to EEMEA foreign exchange (FX) markets, with Hungary’s forint (HUF) expected to benefit the most, according to Bank of America (BofA) analysts.

“The market does not seem to be pricing in a significant probability of a ceasefire,” BofA noted, adding that a resolution in Ukraine, alongside lower European gas prices, could drive stronger performance across regional currencies.

Among the key beneficiaries, the bank believes Hungarian forint (HUF) stands out due to its tight monetary policy and exposure to geopolitical risks. 

“The forint should benefit the most from a potential Russia/Ukraine ceasefire,” analysts said, adding that a weaker USD would further support the currency.

Poland’s zloty (PLN) is also expected to gain, though to a lesser extent than the forint. “A weaker dollar, a hawkish NBP, coupled with a potential Russia/Ukraine ceasefire, should strengthen the PLN,” BofA said.

South Africa’s rand (ZAR), one of the most undervalued emerging market (EM) currencies, is poised for appreciation. “A weaker USD should strengthen the ZAR,” analysts noted.

Turkey’s lira (TRY) is also seen benefiting from tight monetary policy that supports current account adjustments. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna (CZK) is expected to trade below forwards as the Czech National Bank remains cautious about its easing cycle.

Overall, BofA’s outlook suggests that an easing of geopolitical tensions could fuel a rally across EEMEA currencies, driven by stronger risk sentiment and lower oil prices.

 

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