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Investing.com - The Swedish krona is expected to outperform against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2026, according to a new forecast from Morgan Stanley released Monday.
The investment bank predicts SEK will be "among the best performers (in spot terms)" against the USD in the first half of next year, driven by favorable global risk factors and broader growth conditions that support the Swedish currency.
Despite this strong start, Morgan Stanley forecasts that increased European pessimism in the second half of 2026 will ultimately drag total returns for USD/SEK down to "about flat" for the full year.
The bank identifies several key catalysts that will influence the krona’s performance, including "global risk demand, Riksbank versus ECB policy differentials, global manufacturing, trade and defense spending cycle, local inflation and growth data."
While Morgan Stanley anticipates "a positive year for SEK – particularly on crosses," it notes that the EUR/SEK exchange rate "may have a less inspired year," projecting a "marginally downward sloping EUR/SEK profile" through 2026.
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