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Investing.com - The Australian dollar reached its highest level since November 2024 at 0.656, supported by the US-China trade truce and reduced geopolitical tensions that boosted global risk appetite.
The currency’s rise has faced headwinds from softer-than-expected monthly CPI data in Australia, which prompted money markets to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut in July and push the terminal rate to 3.85%.
UBS analysts believe the Reserve Bank of Australia’s approach is more nuanced than current market pricing suggests, noting that easing global uncertainty, tight domestic labor markets, and rising housing clearance rates do not indicate a need for accelerated rate reductions.
Net-short non-commercial positions in the Australian dollar remain extended, which UBS indicates could limit downside risk while potentially serving as a bullish driver if positions reverse sharply. The firm projects AUDUSD to reach 0.70 in the first half of 2026.
UBS also identifies opportunities to hedge exposures to major low-yielding currencies like the Singapore dollar, Swiss franc, and Chinese yuan against the Australian dollar, expecting a combination of spot gains and positive carry over six and twelve months in these currency pairs.
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