UBS sees yen volatility ahead as Japan’s political uncertainty persists

Published 23/07/2025, 11:46
© Reuters.

Investing.com - UBS expects continued political uncertainty in Japan following the Liberal Democratic Party’s defeat in the Upper House election on July 20, potentially impacting the yen’s performance against the dollar.

The Swiss banking giant notes that a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Ishiba or his resignation ahead of the August 1 U.S. trade deadline would likely push the USD/JPY currency pair back to last week’s highs.

Conversely, UBS analysts indicate that successfully striking a trade deal with the United States could alleviate these concerns and drive renewed strength in the Japanese yen.

Such a positive development on the trade front could push the yen toward the lower end of UBS’s expected 140-150 range against the dollar.

The bank’s assessment comes as financial markets closely monitor Japan’s political landscape for signals about economic policy direction and potential impacts on currency valuations in the world’s third-largest economy.

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