UK service sector strength to push EUR/GBP lower: BofA

Published 01/07/2025, 13:44
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is recommending a strategy to sell EUR/GBP, predicting the currency pair will move lower in the coming months.

The bank suggests buying a 6-month 0.8530/0.8350 put spread with a cost of 0.52% EUR, noting that the British pound typically strengthens against the euro in July after showing weakness in June.

According to BofA analysts, EUR/GBP appears overvalued compared to traditional metrics like rate differentials and FX volatility, suggesting the pair could move to at least 0.8320.

The bank’s longer-term outlook is even more bullish for the pound, projecting EUR/GBP to settle into a 0.75-0.80 trading range. This view is supported by several factors, including the UK’s dominant service sector, which should protect the economy from potential tariff impacts.

BofA also points to the UK’s trade deal with the US as a positive factor, along with reduced trade barriers with the EU despite the broader global trend toward protectionism.

The analysis indicates that geopolitical factors may drive closer UK-EU links, while the UK economy is expected to outperform the Eurozone this year. The bank also notes that the pound has not yet benefited significantly from this year’s USD supply, with GBP positioning remaining light.

Risks to this trade strategy include renewed geopolitical tensions or positive developments in European fiscal or defense implementation.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.