NAIROBI, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Nigeria's naira and the Kenyan
shilling are expected to lose value against the dollar in the
week ahead as demand pressures from importers build ahead of
Christmas shopping season.
NIGERIA
The naira NGN= is expected to weaken on the black market
in the coming week as demand pressure resurfaces with importers
stocking up goods ahead of Christmas sales in the wake of dollar
shortages from official sources, traders said.
The naira fell to 478 per dollar on the black market on
Thursday after it hit a 12-week low of 475 on the parallel
market on Monday.
The currency was quoted on the official market at 381 per
dollar, a level it has been at since July.
Traders had expected the naira to trade flat on the black
market amid hopes higher oil prices would boost Nigeria's dollar
flows but demand is swelling faster than had been anticipated,
traders said.
The naira traded at 385.93 on the over-the-counter spot
market NAFEX=FMDQ , widely quoted by investors and importers,
on thin volumes.
KENYA
Kenya's shilling KES= is expected to weaken, undermined by
increased importer dollar demand from oil companies and other
general goods importers, coupled with low inflows from sectors
like tourism and agriculture.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at an all-time low of
109.30/50 to the dollar, compared with last Thursday's close of
108.90/109.10.
"The dollar demand is coming from all sectors; definitely
energy sector, mainly petroleum and also general merchants. So
all this demand against lack of inflows. Exports have dwindled;
we have no tourism inflows," said a trader at one commercial
bank.
TANZANIA
Tanzania's shilling TZS= is also expected to come under
pressure due to higher demand from importers outweighing inflows
from tourism and agriculture exports.
Commercial banks quoted the Shilling at 2,314/24 on
Thursday, unchanged from a week earlier.
"We foresee high import demand outweighing support from
inflows from the tourism sector and agricultural products,
driving the shilling weaker in the coming week," Terry Karanja,
a treasury associate at AZA, a Nairobi-based FX trading firm
said.
UGANDA
The Ugandan shilling UGX= is seen weakening in the coming
days on month-end demand from importers and negative sentiment
from unrest triggered by the arrest of presidential candidate
Bobi Wine.
At 1053 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at
3,702/3,712, compared to last Thursday's close of 3,690/3,700.
A trader at one of the leading commercial banks said they
expect a surge in demand from merchandise importers as
traditionally happens toward end of the month.
"I think there's a negative sentiment from the riots too,
that might trigger some players going short on the shilling," he
said.
Riots erupted in Uganda's capital Kampala and elsewhere on
Wednesday and continued on Thursday after Police detained Wine
who is seeking to unseat long-ruling President Yoweri Museveni.
ZAMBIA
The kwacha ZMW= is expected to remain under pressure
against the U.S. dollar next week due to a reduction in the
supply of foreign exchange.
On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of
Africa's second largest copper producer at 20.9200 per dollar
from a close of 20.8650 a week ago.
"Currently, subdued foreign exchange supply amidst increased
demand has continued to underlie the market," the Bank of Zambia
said in a monetary policy statement on Wednesday.