China’s Xi speaks with Trump by phone, discusses Taiwan and bilateral ties
Investing.com -- Geopolitical tensions are rising even as the United States under President Donald Trump pursues negotiations with Russia and China, according to BCA Research.
In a new report, the firm’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken said U.S. talks with both powers “have triggered a spike in EU–Russia tensions and Sino–Japanese tensions,” with Europe, China and Japan facing “temporary hits to their exports and economies,” while the U.S. remains “relatively aloof” from the fallout.
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BCA Research warned that “Russia–NATO tensions point to a near-term military incident and spike in volatility,” even as diplomatic channels remain open.
The firm stated that the U.S. and Russia are working on a new peace proposal for Ukraine, described as a “28-point plan devised between President Trump’s top negotiator Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart, Kirill Dimitriev.”
The plan reportedly covers the war, Ukraine’s security guarantees, European security and the future of U.S.–Russia relations.
Despite cutting its ceasefire odds from 65% to 55% in October, BCA Research said a truce remains “more likely than not over the coming 12 months.”
Russia, Gertken argued, has incentives to wind down the conflict as President Vladimir Putin faces “peak” approval levels that are “likely to fall going forward.”
Declaring victory and stabilizing the economy is “the only chance to prevent it from collapsing to destabilizing lows,” according to BCA.
Economic pressures are said to be mounting. BCA Research noted that Russian oil production is down 10% from its pre-COVID peak, natural gas output is down 15%, and China’s imports of Russian oil have fallen 27% since 2024. India has also signaled it may curtail Russian imports to secure U.S. tariff relief.
Against this backdrop, BCA Research advised investors to “stay overweight U.S. assets and long Japanese yen.”