(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden returned to the U.S. from summits in Europe with his economic agenda still stuck in Congress and his party’s political fortunes darkened by an electoral defeat in Virginia.
The two bills comprising his agenda, a $550 billion Senate-passed public works measure and a larger package of tax and spending policies he calls “Build Back Better,” are stalled while Democrats hammer out details on health care, immigration, taxes and other issues.
Meanwhile, voters in Virginia delivered a rebuke to the president and his party, electing Republican Glenn Youngkin as governor in a state Biden won by 10 points. In New Jersey, the outcome of Governor Phil Murphy’s re-election fight against a Republican challenger was too close to call, despite a big lead in polls for the Democratic incumbent and close Biden ally as recently as September.
The results suggest public dissatisfaction with the trajectory of the country and with Biden’s presidency. The economy has slowed due to persistent coronavirus transmission, defying the president’s pledge to contain the pandemic, while he has been unable to secure passage of his own legislative agenda.
His approval rating has fallen significantly, to about 43% of Americans, according to an analysis of polls by FiveThirtyEight.
Biden declared before boarding Air Force One for Rome last week that he’d reached a deal on his agenda, calling it a “historic economic framework.” But in the days since, it’s become clear that his party remains divided over the multi-trillion-dollar plan.
‘Back on Track’
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a key centrist, on Monday suggested he might not support the legislation, before saying Tuesday that “we’ll get this back on track.”
“I believe Joe will be there,” Biden said of Manchin in a news conference at a United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, on Tuesday. “I think we’ll get this done.”
The president also incorrectly predicted that the Democratic nominee for Virginia governor, Terry McAuliffe, would defeat Youngkin.
Biden has made clear to Democrats that passing the two bills comprising his economic agenda are vital to the party’s political prospects in 2022 and beyond. Congressional Democrats have been sparring for months over details of “Build Back Better,” with liberals pushing for more spending and tax increases as centrists try to pare back the measure.
The election results may strengthen the hand of the moderates, who have grumbled that progressives in their party seek to push the country further left than most voters prefer.
Virginia Democrats pleaded with Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to at least clear the infrastructure measure for the president’s signature ahead of the election, warning that the squabbling suggested to voters their party can’t govern. Liberals in the House blocked a vote.
On Thursday, before leaving for Europe, the president characterized the discussions as all but concluded. “No one got everything they wanted, including me, but that’s what compromise is,” he said after revealing his “framework” for the legislation.
Continuing Negotiations
But the negotiations continued in the last five days while Biden met with world leaders in Rome and Scotland on crises including climate change and supply-chain breakdowns. “I can’t think of any two days where more has been accomplished dealing with climate,” Biden said Tuesday, after announcing plans to reduce U.S. methane emissions and increase reforestation at the summit.
Democrats have lately debated whether to include a provision in the legislation aimed at reducing prescription drug prices, revisit paid family leave -- a program dropped from the package last week -- and lift a cap on federal income tax deductions for state and local tax payments, among other issues.
The tax debate, known as SALT, is especially fractious among Democrats. Senator Bernie Sanders, a leading progressive, said Tuesday he would oppose a five-year repeal of the cap -- a proposal from centrists in high-tax northeastern states.
Sanders called their plan “beyond unacceptable,” labeling it “more tax breaks to the very rich.”
And the timetable for action on Biden’s domestic agenda is again slipping. Congressional leaders and some liberals had hoped for votes this week, but Manchin said that he isn’t in a hurry.
‘Get It Done’
“It is really critical that we get it done, and I don’t like these deadlines. Let’s just get it done when it gets done before the end of the year,” said Democratic Senator Mazie Hirono of Hawaii.
Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, said that if liberal House Democrats had agreed in September to clear the $550 billion Senate-passed infrastructure legislation, the “Build Back Better” plan would probably already be law as well.
“And we’d be in a better place in Virginia,” he said. “Clearly showing we can make progress would have been nice.”
It is not clear whether Manchin or the other Senate holdout on “Build Back Better,” Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, support Biden’s framework.
Manchin told reporters Tuesday he had only just received the latest draft of climate provisions for Build Back Better and had not seen the details of a proposal to reduce prescription drug prices. Manchin said he is “looking at everything” before adding, “it’s going to be a while.”
Delayed Arrival
The legislative chaos loomed heavy over the president’s Europe trip from the start, with Biden’s ill-fated visit to Capitol Hill on Thursday to announce his “framework” agreement pushing back what had been planned as an early morning departure from Washington past noon. As a result, the president didn’t arrive at Villa Taverna, the fifteenth-century ambassador’s residence where he was staying in Rome, until after 2:30 a.m. on Friday morning.
There was little rest to come. Leaders and diplomats worked late in the night in Rome on climate provisions of the G-20 communique, only to produce a watered-down declaration that echoed previous commitments and failed to include a push on domestic coal sought by some European nations. While Biden sought to spin a corresponding provision committing nations to cease financing coal projects in other nations as a breakthrough, he faced questions about whether his failure to secure his domestic agenda before departing had weakened his hand.
The president both acknowledged and tried to downplay the credibility gap -- though he often only seemed to accentuate it.
He acknowledged world leaders’ skepticism about the ability of the U.S. to follow through on its commitments, and said his “administration is working overtime to show that our climate commitment is action, not words.”
He predicted his economic agenda would pass before the end of the week, only to concede skeptics “may turn out to be right.”
Generic Enthusiasm
He shot reporters a thumbs-up when asked if he had secured commitments from Sinema and Manchin to vote for the bill, only for the White House then to issue a statement saying he was exhibiting generic enthusiasm for its prospects.
After an early morning flight from Rome to Glasgow, the jet lag appeared to set in. Biden’s eyes closed during introductory remarks at the climate summit for 32 seconds, until an aide ran to his seat to get his attention -- earning derisive coverage in Scotland and a mocking rebuke from former President Donald Trump.
The trip was not without its successes: foreign leaders warmly embraced him, in marked contrast to his predecessor. He and French President Emmanuel Macron quashed a spat over Australia’s decision to spurn Paris for a nuclear submarine deal with the U.S. and U.K., and a tariff deal on steel and aluminum offered a major trade victory that addressed not only climate concerns but rising inflation back at home.
The president was also clearly moved by his extended audience with Pope Francis, speaking of his personal bond with the Catholic leader.
But even Biden admitted to reporters that his attention -- and, he suspected, theirs too -- was focused on the legislative and political battles back home.
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