Alaska Air Group’s earnings about to take-off, says UBS as it upgrades stock

Published 12/09/2025, 15:40
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- UBS upgraded Alaska Air Group to Buy from Neutral, saying the carrier is set for a multi-year profit upswing driven by premium seating, loyalty growth, global routes and synergies from its Hawaiian Airlines deal.

The brokerage raised its price target to $90 from $56, about 60% above current levels, and lifted its 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates well ahead of Wall Street’s view.

UBS now forecasts EPS of $6.94 in 2026 and $10.05 in 2027, up from prior estimates of $6.17 and $8.41.

UBS analysts said Alaska’s initiatives could fuel sustained revenue growth and cost gains, with a 200–250 basis point spread between revenue per seat mile and unit costs over 2026–27.

Expanding premium seating to 29% of the fleet could add up to $400 million in revenue, while loyalty growth could contribute another $200 million.

The carrier’s Seattle–Tokyo route alone is expected to add at least $140 million annually, with more international routes planned.

Synergies from Hawaiian Airlines and planned share buybacks are set to account for more than 80% of Alaska’s projected EPS growth through 2027, according to UBS.

Corporate demand is also recovering and competition is easing in key markets such as San Francisco.

“While going from $3.27 in 2025 to over $10 in 2027 appears steep, it implies a 27% CAGR,” UBS wrote, adding that Alaska’s $500 million synergy plan and buybacks should make the ramp achievable.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.