Alliance Pharma downgraded by RBC after weak H2, revenue miss

Published 31/01/2025, 11:28

Investing.com -- Alliance Pharma (LON:ALAPH) on Friday reported a disappointing trading update, prompting analysts at RBC Capital Markets to downgrade the stock to "sector perform.” 

The downgrade comes after the company reported full-year revenue that fell 4% below market expectations, reflecting an underperformance in the second half of the year. 

The weakness was primarily driven by declines across all Consumer Health products, while the company’s Prescription Medicine segment showed some resilience. Despite the revenue shortfall, Alliance Pharma has maintained its profit guidance for 2024.

The company’s flagship product, Kelo-cote, underperformed expectations, coming in 1% below RBC estimates, as the transition to smaller and more frequent orders took longer than anticipated. 

Nizoral, a key consumer health brand, saw a sharp 21% decline at constant exchange rates, significantly worse than the 6% decline projected by RBC. 

The company attributed this to the timing of distributor orders. Meanwhile, Amberen, a menopause supplement, declined by 7%, aligning with RBC forecasts. 

Other consumer products, which had been a source of strength in recent periods, fell by 2%, contrary to RBC’s projection of 4% growth. 

Prescription Medicine, however, showed an 8% increase, outperforming RBC’s 4% growth estimate.

Following the weaker-than-expected performance, RBC analysts adjusted their valuation of Alliance Pharma’s stock to 62.5p per share, aligning it with the price of a recommended takeover bid. 

The brokerage advised shareholders to accept the offer. In the absence of a competing bid, RBC expects Alliance Pharma’s share price to decline.

The analysts outlined both upside and downside scenarios for the stock. In a best-case scenario, a competing bid could emerge at around 65p per share, though RBC considers this unlikely given the significant private equity ownership and the board’s recommendation. 

The downside risk, however, remains considerable. If the current bid fails or is withdrawn, RBC warns that shares could drop to 35p, reflecting the company’s weak trading performance and broader market sentiment.

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