Apple iPhone 17 demand tracking to surpass 16 based on delivery lead times- JPM

Published 15/09/2025, 02:56

Investing.com-- JP Morgan analysts said in a note that demand for Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL)  recently launched iPhone 17 line appears to be stronger than first-week demand seen for the 16 series last year, citing delivery lead-times in key markets. 

JPM said lead-times in the U.S., China, Germany, and UK were tracking “modestly ahead” of the iPhone 16 series in the pre-order week, with high demand noted for the base 17 model, as well as the newly introduced, super-thin Air model. The latter was in comparison to the 16 Plus model. 

The brokerage noted that while early trends showed demand more skewed towards base models over the Pro iPhones, this did not necessarily indicate that Pro demand– which represents appetite for Apple’s more expensive models– would be weaker than last year. 

But persistence in this trend could show base iPhone demand rising much more than internal expectations. 

Delivery lead times indicate how long a customer will have to wait between ordering a new iPhone and receiving it, with a longer wait time indicating stronger demand. 

In the U.S., which accounts for roughly a third of iPhone shipments, lead times for the 17 base and Air models were four and seven days, respectively. For the Pro and Pro Max, lead times were four and 21 days, respectively, JPM said. 

This compares to zero days of lead time for the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus models during their preorder week. The 16 Pro and Pro Max saw lead times of six and 20 days, respectively.

Apple had last week unveiled its iPhone 17 line, with the ultra-thin Air model aimed at competing with similar offerings from rivals such as Samsung. But the model is reportedly facing delays in China due to regulatory hurdles around it using e-sim technology. 

Apple’s shares had reacted negatively to the reveal, with investors left wanting for more cues on the company’s artificial intelligence plans. But signs of improving demand could help improve the company’s sales outlook, especially as it grapples with slowing sales in key market China. 

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