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Investing.com -- Ashtead Group (LON:AHT) has reported third-quarter results on Tuesday that were broadly in line with expectations, with strong cost control helping to offset challenges in certain markets.
As per analysts, the company’s overall EBITA performance was in line with forecasts, though there was a notable beat in US margins.
Adjusted EPS came in 1% ahead of consensus. Guidance remains unchanged, and full-year earnings per share estimates for 2025 have been maintained, while 2026 estimates were slightly reduced due to weaker performance in Canada and the UK.
US rental revenue grew by 1% in the third quarter, aligning with Barclays’ estimates and previous guidance.
The strength of mega projects and hurricane response efforts offset lower activity in local commercial construction.
General tool rental declined by 2% year-over-year, while specialty rental increased by 10%. Despite slower sequential growth, US EBITDA outperformed estimates by approximately 2%, with a margin expansion of around one percentage point.
Cost control played a significant role in this outcome, contributing to a 71% year-to-date drop-through rate.
In Canada, EBITDA fell $20 million short of Barclays’ expectations, prompting a downward revision in revenue guidance.
J.P. Morgan attributes the weaker performance to slower-than-expected progress in the Film & TV business.
However, at the group level, the impact of Canada’s underperformance was limited, keeping overall group EBITDA and EBITA in line with forecasts.
Free cash flow reached $858 million in the first nine months, and net debt declined to $10.6 billion from $11.2 billion a year ago. Net debt to EBITDA now stands at 2.1x on a constant currency basis.
US capital expenditures have decreased by 52% year-over-year, with the company reallocating existing fleet capacity rather than expanding aggressively.
The group continues to guide FY25 rental revenue growth at 3-5%, with regional expectations as follows: US rental revenue growth at 2-4% (unchanged), Canada at 9-13% (previously 15-19%), and UK at 3-6% (unchanged).
Gross capex is projected between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion, with FCF expected to be around $1.4 billion.
For the fourth quarter, Barclays (LON:BARC) has made minimal changes to its estimates, continuing to model flat rental revenue growth.
While Ashtead’s current trading trends appear weaker than those reflected in United Rentals (NYSE:URI) and Herc Holdings (NYSE:HRI) guidance for FY25, Barclays attributes this to differences in business mix rather than a loss of market share for Ashtead’s Sunbelt division.
“On the guided framework, we would expect a 1-2% reduction in consensus adj. PBT/ adj. EPS forecasts for FY25 where some forecasts remain stale,” said analysts at J.P. Morgan.
However, both Barclays and J.P. Morgan have left their FY25 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS forecasts unchanged, in line with company guidance.
Barclays maintains an “overweight” rating on Ashtead Group, with a positive outlook for the European business services sector.
The price target remains at 6,600 GBp, representing a potential upside of 37.5% from the latest trading price of 4,799 GBp. No updates have been provided on the previously announced US listing plans.