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Investing.com -- Bank of America lowered its price target for ASML (AS:ASML) to €759 from €795 in a note to clients on Tuesday, citing multiple risks to Foundry and Logic demand, particularly in 2026.
The firm maintained its Buy rating on the stock, arguing that the valuation remains attractive at 19.6 times estimated 2026 EV/EBITDA, below its 10-year median of 22x.
BofA cut its calendar year 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates by 4% to 5%, highlighting a number of downside risks.
These reportedly include “lower high-NA revenues in 26E (4 units down from 8),” “slightly lower China revenues,” and uncertainty surrounding demand from key chipmakers.
“We see multiple risks incl. (A) ongoing challenges at Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) ahead of 18A ramp, (B) unclear situation at Samsung (KS:005930) in DRAM (still not qualified at Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)), (C) further China export controls hurting demand from existing clients (CXMT, SMIC, etc.),” analysts wrote.
ASML’s near-term demand for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools could also be dampened by “a lack of progress in high-NA adoption at key customers” such as TSMC and Samsung, and SK Hynix’s potential shift toward 3D DRAM, BofA said.
On the positive side, BofA highlighted “strong 2nm demand at TSMC,” potential upside from Samsung’s 2nm U.S. fab in early 2026, and possible relocation of capacity from China to Korea and Taiwan if U.S. export waivers are revoked.
Despite the 2026 lower estimates, BofA remains bullish long-term. The firm noted that even with export bans, ASML’s 2030 earnings potential would still be €40, with upside to €50 per share, citing “AI chip demand increasing from $253bn this year (35% of global chip demand) to $794bn in 2030.”