Nucor earnings beat by $0.08, revenue fell short of estimates
Investing.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) downgraded Rémy Cointreau (EPA:RCOP) to “underweight” from “equal weight,” citing the company’s stock performance and challenges within the cognac sector as key factors behind the downgrade, in a note dated Monday.
The brokerage acknowledges that while Rémy Cointreau has seen a return to growth and an improved macroeconomic environment, there are structural concerns that the firm believes make the company’s current stock valuation unjustified.
The stock has seen a substantial rerating, surpassing its peers, but Barclays highlights persistent structural headwinds within the cognac industry, particularly the weak U.S. market.
The analysis points to significant issues such as high promotional activity and negative sales growth, with Nielsen data showing a decline in value sales of both Hennessy and Rémy Cointreau products.
This is largely attributed to a downtrading trend, where consumers are shifting away from premium cognac in favor of other spirits like Reposado tequila.
In addition to the U.S. market struggles, China, a key market for the company, also remains a source of concern. Despite some positive signals in recent reports, including a recovery in China’s travel retail sector, the overall economic situation remains weak.
The company’s CFO noted the challenges facing the duty-free channel, adding that the recovery in the country might not be as robust as expected.
Further complicating matters are concerns over declining consumer sentiment, especially with house prices continuing to fall, which affects consumer spending.
Barclays also noted that Rémy Cointreau’s premiumisation strategy, while promising, faces immediate challenges in the current market dynamics, with further downtrading expected.
The brokerage raised the possibility that the company might have to reduce its premium prices to remain competitive in markets like the U.S., especially if the cognac sector does not show signs of strong recovery.
According to Barclays, the company’s stock price has outpaced its fundamentals in the near term, hence the downgrade.
The price target remains unchanged at €45, reflecting a potential downside of 22% from the current price of €57.70.
Despite a favorable macroeconomic outlook, the structural problems in the cognac industry, particularly in China and the U.S., prompted Barclays to revise its outlook, marking a shift from previous expectations.
The downgrade comes after an earlier upgrade, which was influenced by the removal of China tariffs, a factor that had boosted the stock price.
Risks to the downgrade include better-than-expected growth in China and a recovery in the U.S. cognac market, as well as potential improvements in the tequila trend benefiting Cointreau.
Conversely, downside risks remain high, with further economic deterioration in China, a continued downtrend in the U.S. cognac market, or an adverse shift in tariffs possibly exacerbating the challenges.