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Investing.com -- Chip equipment makers are facing growing risks in China as domestic rivals gain ground and demand trends start to shift, according to Barclays analysts.
The bank now expects China’s wafer front-end (WFE) spending to fall 5% in 2025, followed by 5% growth in 2026. But the outlook is less supportive for Western suppliers.
“The addressable market for our coverage could decline 10-20% in 2025e and additional 2-5% in 2026e, depending on export controls,” analysts led by Simon Coles said in a note.
Chinese manufacturers are increasingly substituting domestic tools for imported ones, with localisation rising from the mid-teens in 2023 to more than 20% in 2024.
“Many local semicap companies have announced in the last year a plethora of new tools coming to market,” the analysts wrote.
“These will take time to be verified and accepted, but within 1-2 years we anticipate local semicap companies offer products that cover an even higher proportion of the market.”
Barclays estimates local suppliers could add more than 5 percentage points of market share annually, with strong progress in polishing and grinding tools, though areas such as lithography and process control remain dominated by foreign firms.
Lagging-edge demand is also expected to be a drag, with Barclays forecasting around a 10% year-on-year decline.
Export controls remain another key overhang. The report notes that about a quarter of China’s WFE market could be localised in 2025, with 10-30% restricted—more so for U.S. companies than for European or Japanese firms.
That leaves only 70-75% addressable for Western players, a share Barclays expects to shrink further if restrictions widen.
“If export controls/entity lists are expanded … addressable WFE in 2026e could decline >15% YoY – a very different outcome than what our 5% headline WFE growth forecast suggests,” the team said.
Barclays points to diverging exposures across regions. U.S. companies such as Lam Research and KLA are already seeing China weigh more heavily on results, while Applied Materials faces pressure from local competitors NAURA (SZ:002371) and AMEC (SS:688012).
In Europe, Barclays sees ASML’s position as more insulated in the near term given limited substitution risk in lithography, though it cautions that breakthroughs by Chinese peers could emerge in the coming years.
The bank estimates the U.S. addressable market could be about 14% weaker in 2026 than industry forecasts, at $25 billion versus $29 billion.
In sum, the bank argues that the headline resilience in China’s WFE spending masks a more challenging picture for foreign suppliers.
It estimates the global market for Western semicaps could fall below $100 billion in 2025 and shrink further to $90-95 billion in 2026, before any recovery depends on growth outside China.