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Barclays says Apple September quarter guidance could miss Street estimates

Published 26/07/2023, 13:40
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AAPL
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Barclays analysts told investors in a note Wednesday that they believe Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) September quarter guidance could miss Street estimates.

The analysts, who have an Equal Weight rating and $149 price target on the stock, added that despite the potential miss, it's not clear that it matters for the stock as "bulls may expect a stronger Dec-Q."

"We expect broadly in-line June Q as better services revenue (led by App Store, TAC also above) offsetting weaker hardware revenue, though iPhone channel fill and incremental better FX vs. guidance (2 points FX upside) can mute some of the downside for hardware," they wrote.

"More importantly, Sep-Q hardware guide could miss Street estimates due to IP15 delay and some IP15 pro model units shifting to Dec-Q."

The analysts explained that as per the firm's Asia checks, the iPhone 15 is running three to four weeks behind owing to the Titanium alloy frame casing, camera module, and large screen production challenge. In addition, they say there is also a CMOS image sensor production issue with base models.

"Our latest checks also indicate iPhone sell-through in China decelerated to HSD declines in July, another bad data point for Sep-Q," they added.

"At a ~50% premium to the S&P 500, we see the stock as fairly valued at best. Along with the weaker consumer spending backdrop, we believe we are witnessing the catch-up from strong COVID performance across product categories. We see pressure to estimates and potentially PE multiple ahead."

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