Bayer shares rise over 5% after Goldman Sachs upgrade to “buy”

Published 05/06/2025, 10:58
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Shares of Bayer AG (ETR:BAYGN) were up over 5% on Thursday after Goldman Sachs upgraded the German pharmaceutical and life sciences company to a "buy" rating from "neutral." 

Goldman Sachs analysts cited a positive risk-reward outlook into the second half of 2025, driven by potential catalysts that could support a re-rating towards their sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation over the medium term. 

The 12-month price target for Bayer (OTC:BAYRY) was set at €33, implying a 32.2% upside from its price of €24.96.

The upgrade reflects Goldman Sachs’ belief that Bayer may have reached the bottom of its negative earnings revision cycle. 

This follows a strong operational start to the year, with disciplined cost management in the Crop Science division and robust momentum in the underlying Pharma business. 

Goldman Sachs analysts are now forecasting positive consensus revisions as the market acknowledges the reset in the cost base due to a new operating model and the strong underlying performance. Their EBITDA estimates are 2%-8% ahead of consensus across 2027-2030.

Further positive risk-reward is anticipated from upcoming litigation newsflow and a significant pharmaceutical catalyst. 

Regarding litigation, should the U.S. Supreme Court accept the Durnell case, Goldman Sachs’ analysis suggests a potential 10%-25% upside to current levels. 

If the case is not accepted, the downside risk at current levels is considered relatively limited.

OCEANIC-STROKE has been noted as a particularly noteworthy pharmaceutical catalyst.

Despite prior disappointment with the OCEANIC-AF trial, Goldman Sachs is positive on asundexian’s mechanism and potential efficacy outcomes, although they acknowledge lower visibility on bleeding risk outcomes. 

Their discounted cash flow analysis implies more than 13% upside versus less than 5% downside on a positive or negative readout, respectively, compared to their base case.

Goldman Sachs’ new €33 12-month target price implies approximately 30% upside to current levels. 

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