Bernstein upgrades Konami, downgrades Square Enix as Japan gaming sector resets

Published 30/09/2025, 18:18
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Bernstein said Japan’s video gaming sector is undergoing a “necessary reset” after a strong first half of 2025, with a lack of near-term catalysts and rising costs likely to keep shares drifting in the short term, even as the longer-term outlook stays positive.

The brokerage upgraded Konami to Outperform with a price target of 25,800 yen, citing upcoming catalysts such as next year’s World Cup, the 2026 eFootball update, and new game launches.

“Large tournaments have reliable track records of boosting video gaming engagement, and we expect Konami to benefit as the faster growing half of the global football game duopoly,” it wrote.

Konami is also expected to get a boost from the launch of Momotaro Dentetsu 2 in November and the World Baseball Classic in March.

Bernstein downgraded Square Enix to Underperform with a price target of 2,130 yen, saying a bullish takeover scenario has become less likely after Electronic Arts was bought at likely low-20x forward earnings multiples. It said the company remains resistant to operational changes and large dividends.

The Tokyo Game Show highlighted the growing presence of Chinese anime gacha games, with NetEase’s Ananta and Capcom’s Pragmata drawing strong crowds.

Bernstein said Nintendo’s upcoming Switch 2 looks “solid,” with improving margins and a strong line-up including Pokémon Legends: Z-A, Metroid Prime 4 and third-party hits like Elden Ring.

It added that Sony and Konami are best placed to benefit from upcoming catalysts, while Nintendo remains attractively valued as the new console cycle ramps up.

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