Michigan survey ahead; Applied Digital surges; gold dips - what’s moving markets
Investing.com -- Bank of America said in a note Thursday that investors should not fear buying U.S. equities at record levels, noting that “over the past fifty years, S&P 500 returns showed no penalty versus buying on any other occasion, and five years later there was on average a meaningful boost.”
In its latest RIC Outlook, BofA told investors that while “buying equities at all-time highs may feel like a mistake,” historical performance suggests otherwise.
The bank added that this year, “investors have been rewarded by ignoring weak ‘soft’ survey data in favor of resilient hard data.”
“The best reason to stay bullish into year-end is that so many consumers, lenders, and companies are bearish,” BofA said. It noted that a gap persists between sentiment and measurable activity, reinforcing the case for equities despite widespread caution.
BofA also highlighted that in September, soft data’ measures of investor and economic sentiment decreased slightly, citing weaker ISM new orders and lower Conference Board consumer confidence.
Those readings “lowered the series to 0.5 standard deviations below average,” while “‘hard data’ measures of economic and financial market activity held steady, around 0.3sd above average.”
Beyond the stock market, BofA said households have the most cash since 1991 and that “existing home sales are at dour GFC levels.”
It attributed both trends to high interest rates and pointed to the mid-1980s as precedent, when “rate cuts made mortgages friendly and the cash rotation made equity prices double.”
The bank’s base case for the end of the fourth quarter is a “4% 10-year Treasury and 3.9% Fed rate.”