S&P 500 pulls back from record high as chip-led slump in tech weighs
Investing.com -- Equity sentiment ticked higher in June, according to Bank of America’s (BofA) Sell Side Indicator.
The SSI, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ average recommended equity allocations, rose to 55.6% from 55.1%, marking a second straight monthly gain.
But despite the uptick, sentiment remains subdued relative to market performance. “The S&P 500 closed the month at an all-time high, but our SSI is still 1.4ppt below its recent peak of 57.0% earlier this year,” strategists Victoria Roloff and Savita Subramanian wrote.
The indicator remains in “Neutral” territory, though closer to the “Sell” threshold than the “Buy” zone.
Historically used as a contrarian signal, the SSI suggests investors remain cautious. BofA calculates that the current reading implies a potential 13% price return for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months.
However, the bank warns that risks remain on the horizon.
One key point is the near-term volatility tied to U.S. macro developments. The upcoming payrolls report and the July 9 deadline for President Donald Trump’s tariff pause could be key market catalysts.
“Any re-escalation of trade tensions poses further downside risks to consensus’ expectation of high single-digit S&P 500 EPS growth this year,” strategists said.
The SSI has historically offered better predictive power than other popular timing tools, including dividend yield or yield curve models. While it doesn’t catch every market move, BofA notes that the indicator has outperformed other single-factor models in anticipating 12-month returns.
Notably, current equity sentiment remains below the traditional 60-65% allocation range for balanced funds.
During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the indicator fell below this range for the first time since 2000. Although sentiment has rebounded sharply from its 2012 low of 43.9% and nearly touched 60% in 2021, current levels remain below this historical norm.