Bottom of tariff-driven stock market slide a "long way away," BCA Research says

Published 08/04/2025, 09:34
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Investing.com - The bottom of a stock market plunge fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariff announcement is likely a "long way away," according to analysts at BCA Research.

In a note to clients, the analysts led by Irene Tunkel predicted that the benchmark S&P 500 may end up sliding to as low as 4,300, barring any reversals in trade policy "that could undo" the recent ructions in equities.

On Monday, the S&P 500 ended at 5,062.25, logging a modest decline after having hovered close to bear market territory -- generally defined as a 20% decline from a recent peak.

"The first stage of equity sell-off, driven by policy uncertainty, is now mostly complete," the analysts wrote.

Still, investors remain wary that the pressure from Trump's tariffs, which include a minimum 10% for all U.S. imports and targeted rates of up to 50%, is not likely to fade soon.

Analysts, meanwhile, have said the levies could weigh on broader U.S. growth, depending on how long they stay in effect for.

"Equities will find a bottom when the full effects of tariffs on earnings and economic growth are priced in," the BCA Research analysts said.

They projected that the "second stage" of the tariff-driven market tumble will be "a reaction to the imminent effect of tariffs on economic and earnings growth."

Leading figures on Wall Street, such as J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, have warned that the negative effects of the tariffs may expand "cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse."

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is due to tell the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday that he has been approached by almost 50 countries asking to discuss Trump's sweeping tariffs, according to media reports.

Greer will say in written testimony that several of these countries, like Argentina, Vietnam, and Israel, have suggested they will bring down their tariffs and non-tariff barriers, Reuters reported.

The statement is set to come as markets are still attempting to understand if the Trump administration plans to impose the tariffs permanently or use them as a cudgle during negotiations with trading partners. On Monday, Trump said "both can be true."

Over the weekend, U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested that more nations had reached out to the White House about forging a possible deal.

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