July retail sales excluding autos are expected to align with consensus expectations, BTIG analysts said Wednesday, predicting a modest 0.1% increase. This follows a stronger-than-expected 0.4% increase in June, which had surpassed the anticipated 0.1% rise.
"There is a small positive bias as the regression output is just a touch under being enough to round up to 0.2%,” analysts said in a note.
BTIG notes that several exogenous factors could influence July's figures, including the Olympics, Hurricane Beryl, and the assassination attempt on former President Trump, all of which have been cited as impacting consumer spending.
"Investors should also watch out for June revisions -- if June is revised down that will make it easier for July retail sales to come in higher on a seasonally-adjusted basis,” the firm noted.
By category, the data suggests improvements in grocery, general merchandise, electronics, appliances, and home furnishings on a month-over-month basis.
E-commerce is also expected to perform well, with Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) estimating an 11% rise in online sales during the Prime Day period (July 16-17) and projecting 8% growth for July overall. However, dining out and home improvement sectors appear to have been softer during the month.
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET on August 15.
According to BTIG, consumer sentiment remained stable in July. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to an eight-month low during the month, falling to 66.0 from 68.2, though it remained within the margin of error.
In contrast, the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure increased to 100.3 from 97.8. Despite the differing directions, both surveys pointed to a decline in how consumers feel about current economic conditions.