BTIG upgrades Booking, downgrades Upwork

Published 04/04/2025, 18:52
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- In a note Friday, BTIG upgraded Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) to Buy with a price target of $5,500, citing improving earnings visibility and an attractive valuation. 

At the same time, the firm downgraded Upwork (NASDAQ:UPWK) to Neutral, pointing to rising risks and limited upside potential.

BTIG raised Booking to Buy, saying it sees "visibility into a healthy 2Q" and that "FX puts upward pressure on full-year numbers, despite all of the macro malaise." 

The firm believes the company’s mid-teens EPS growth is sustainable and highlighted "under-appreciated opportunities as it continues to push in alternative accommodations and Connected Trip."

The stock also trades at a "~20% PE multiple discount to large cap Internet comps," which BTIG sees as a tactical opportunity to buy a "high-quality category leader."

For Upwork, BTIG downgraded the stock, citing concerns about the company’s international exposure, AI-driven job displacement, and weaker demand trends. 

While BTIG credited management for "effectively managing the P&L", it warned that "fundamentals look primed to take another leg down."

The firm noted that Upwork’s Gross Services Volume (GSV) could fall by "6-7% to $3.7B in a plausible post-tariff scenario" and that the stock’s valuation already reflects its potential upside. 

"We expect the market will be reluctant to give UPWK more than an 8-9x EBITDA multiple given topline headwinds and AI overhang," BTIG said.

Given these challenges, BTIG now sees Upwork’s stock as "fairly valued" in the $11-$13 range, leading to the downgrade.

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