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Investing.com -- Citi said North American canmakers are likely to beat second-quarter earnings expectations and raise full-year guidance given a stronger than expected demand, mostly from non-alcoholic beverages.
The brokerage placed Crown Holdings (NYSE:CCK) on a positive catalyst watch and called it the most attractively valued name in the group.
It expects Crown Holdings’ management to lift 2025 guidance, helped by accelerating U.S. volumes, gains in Europe and favorable foreign exchange.
Citi also raised earnings estimates modestly for Ball Corp (NYSE:BALL), Ardagh Metal Packaging (NYSE:PKG), and Crown Holdings, projecting 2–3% upside to consensus EBITDA forecasts.
“We’re Neutral on BALL as we prefer peers with less exposure to beer, although restoring NA vol growth in-line with the market could drive multiple improvement,” analyst at Citi said.
U.S. can volumes are up 6.8% year-over-year for the quarter through mid-June, well above initial industry guidance.
Growth in non-alcoholic categories, up 10%, has been especially supportive for CCK and AMBP.
While the firm sees limited exposure to recent U.S. aluminum tariffs, it flagged the upcoming earnings calls as a key window for companies to revise their volume outlooks, with two of the three busiest seasonal weekends already behind them.
Despite improved fundamentals, Citi said beverage packagers remain underappreciated, with valuations below long-term averages.
It sees room for further re-rating if companies confirm the stronger demand trends and revise guidance higher as expected.