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Investing.com -- Investor sentiment in China’s stock market has declined significantly due to the absence of expected policy changes and approaching critical dates for tariffs, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
The weighted Morgan Stanley Asia Sentiment Index (MSASI) dropped by 16 percentage points to 71%, while the simple MSASI fell by 17 percentage points to 57%, compared to the previous measurement on June 25.
Despite the sentiment decline, trading activity showed mixed signals. Average daily turnover for ChiNext and A-shares increased by 13% and 15% respectively compared to the June 19-25 period. However, equity futures trading volume decreased by 23% and Northbound trading fell by 3% during the same timeframe.
The bank cautioned that markets could face increased volatility "in the next month or two," though they maintain a more positive outlook for fund flow momentum over the medium to long term, expecting steady improvement on a six to twelve-month basis.
Technical indicators also reflected the market weakness, with the 30-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) decreasing by 2 percentage points compared to June 25. Consensus earnings estimate revisions remained negative, continuing at similar levels to the previous week.
In contrast to the overall sentiment decline, Southbound flows (mainland Chinese investors buying Hong Kong stocks) showed continued strength, with net inflows of $2.4 billion between June 26 and July 2. This brings year-to-date Southbound inflows to $93.8 billion, with $0.6 billion flowing in month-to-date.
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