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Investing.com -- China's holdings of US Treasuries have come under increased examination by global analysts following a week of significant fluctuations in the US bond market. Some have suggested, without concrete proof, that Beijing's sales may have contributed to the largest surge in 30-year yields since the pandemic began, which also led to market volatility.
Speculation has risen regarding China's potential to offload US debt in the future as a response to the highest American tariffs in a century. Ataru Okumura, a senior interest-rate strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo, suggested in a client note that China could be selling Treasuries as retaliation, and it might not hesitate to disrupt the global financial market to strengthen its negotiation power against the US.
Analysts have attributed the move to a mix of fundamental and technical factors, ranging from hedge fund selling to fears of stagflation. The possibility of the Chinese government's involvement is more speculative due to the secrecy of its trading activities. However, strategists often consider China's Treasuries stockpile a potential leverage point over the US, despite the fact that aggressive sales could devalue China's foreign reserves.
China is the second-largest foreign owner of US Treasury bonds, after Japan, and has been reducing its holdings for some time, according to official data. The US Department of the Treasury reported in January that holdings had consistently decreased to the lowest level since at least 2011. However, this data is complicated by the fact that holdings belonging to countries like Belgium, which are believed to be linked to custodian accounts in China, have increased.
The US government's portfolio flow data, due on June 18, will provide a clearer indication of whether China has sold any of its Treasuries holdings.
Prashant Newnaha, a strategist at TD Securities, doubts that China is selling, citing the divergence in yield movements at different maturities of the US Treasuries curve as evidence. He noted that China has been slowing its purchases in recent years and it's likely that the duration of its holdings has also shortened.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies LLC, also expressed skepticism about retaliatory dumping of China’s Treasuries holdings. He suggested that forced selling by highly leveraged players in the 'basis' trade, where absolute-return investors seek to make money, is a more plausible explanation. Such arbitrage strategies have accounted for a growing share of foreign ownership of Treasury bonds.
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