Intel stock spikes after report of possible US government stake
Investing.com -- Citi noted that Saudi Arabia’s central government budget deficit increased significantly in the first quarter (1Q) of 2025, reaching SAR58.7 billion, compared to a deficit of SAR12.4 billion in the same period last year. The widening gap was attributed primarily to a decrease in oil revenues and an uptick in current spending.
Oil revenues saw a notable decline of 19.3% year-over-year (YoY) in the first quarter, while non-oil revenues remained relatively flat. Specifically, taxes on goods and services, which compose about 60% of total non-hydrocarbon proceeds, experienced a marginal increase of 0.3% YoY in real terms. On the expenditure side, real spending rose by 3.2% YoY, with social benefits, financing expenses, and other expenses registering significant increases, despite a 21% YoY decline in capital spending.
Citi analysts anticipate that the Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280)’s budget deficit will expand from 2.5% of GDP in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025, surpassing the general consensus of a 4% deficit. Their projection for a 2025 deficit of approximately SAR225 billion also exceeds the official government forecast of SAR101 billion.
The analysts suggest that the Kingdom’s strong fiscal position and precautionary buffers will facilitate the financing of a larger deficit, with borrowing strategies that include domestic and international debt capital markets, as well as private funding sources.
The report also looked ahead to future global events that Saudi Arabia is set to host, such as the World Expo 2030, the FIFA World Cup in 2034, and the AFC Asian Cup in 2027, which are expected to maintain elevated spending pressures. Citi’s analysis includes both bullish and bearish scenarios for commodities, factoring in potential outcomes of a US-Iran deal and its impact on oil prices.
In the bearish scenario with increased Iranian oil exports, the Saudi budget deficit could widen to 6.5% of GDP in 2025 and 7.8% in 2026. Conversely, in a bullish scenario without a US-Iran deal, the deficit could narrow to 1.9% of GDP in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
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