Citi lifts S&P 500 year-end target on modest tariff drag, tax benefits

Published 11/08/2025, 09:56
© Pavlo Gonchar / SOPA Images/Sipa via Reuters Connect

Investing.com -- Citi strategists lifted their year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600 from 6,300, citing a modest fundamental drag from tariffs combined with tax benefits, which they expect will boost forward earnings. The new target implies roughly 3% upside.

The team led by Scott Chronert raised earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the index to $272 for 2025 and $308 for 2026, up from prior estimates of $261 and $295.

In a note seen by Bloomberg, Citi noted that second-quarter earnings beats have been met with steady second-half projections, suggesting the upside is flowing directly into full-year consensus.

The strategists said their forecasts support the S&P 500 reaching 6,900 by mid-2026 and left valuation assumptions unchanged.

They expect a broadening of fundamentals similar to last year, but cautioned that the current euphoric sentiment could lead to volatility, which they view as a buying opportunity.

This marks Citi’s second price target increase in two months.

In June, the bank raised its year-end target for the benchmark index to 6,300, driven by renewed confidence in AI-related opportunities and stronger earnings growth expectations for next year.

U.S. stocks ended last week on a high, with tech leading gains and the major indexes finishing the week higher.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.98% to a record 21,450.02 after hitting an intraday high, while the S&P 500 added 0.78% to 6,389.45, just shy of a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 206.97 points, or 0.47%, to 44,175.61.

For the week, the Dow advanced 1.4%, the S&P 500 rose 2.4%, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.9%.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was the key upside driver, soaring 13%—its best week since July 2020—after unveiling a $600 billion U.S. investment plan aimed at appeasing President Donald Trump.

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