Citi: Market underestimates TotalEnergies upstream volume and margin growth

Published 26/03/2025, 16:06
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Citi upgraded TotalEnergies (EPA:TTEF) from Neutral to Buy in a note Wednesday, raising its price target for the stock to €70 from €61 a share. 

The bank highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in its upstream business and a premium-quality portfolio that makes it a standout in European energy.

"We think the market underestimates the volume and margin growth within TTE’s core Upstream business," said Citi, noting that its estimates for 2028-2030 cash flow from operations (CFFO) are 11% above VisibleAlpha market expectations. 

The firm expects real CFFO growth of approximately 6% per year through 2030, a pace that exceeds key European peers and even rivals U.S. integrated oil companies (IOCs).

TotalEnergies’ upstream reserve life of about 12 years is among the longest in the industry, providing a foundation for continued expansion, notes Citi. 

"The divergence of TTE’s reserve life versus key European peers (Shell and BP (NYSE:BP)) is stark," Citi wrote.

Additionally, the company’s Integrated Power business is expected to scale to 15% of invested capital by 2030, making it the only global IOC with significant exposure to the fast-growing electricity sector.

While macro uncertainties remain—particularly regarding oil tariffs—Citi believes OPEC+ will act to protect downside risks. 

"If we are wrong, then we believe TTE has financial characteristics—low leverage and defensive earnings—to help protect the downside," the firm added.

Citi also raised its 2025-2030 CFFO forecast by 7% and EPS estimates by 13%, partly due to anticipated higher share buybacks.

 

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