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Investing.com -- Shares of Conduit tumbled 7.3% as the insurance company reported a mixed set of financial figures for the second half of 2024, with some metrics surpassing consensus estimates while others fell short.
Despite posting a net income of $28 million, which was 33% above the consensus of $21 million, and ending the fiscal year with a net of $126 million, 6% above the consensus of $119m, the company’s combined ratios indicated potential concerns.
Conduit’s FY24 return on equity (ROE) stood at 12.7%, slightly better than the consensus expectation of 12.0%. However, the company’s undiscounted combined ratio worsened to 107.2%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the anticipated 105.8%.
In contrast, the discounted combined ratio was 95.7%, which was 1.5 percentage points better than the consensus of 97.1%. The discount effect in the second half of 2024 was 11.6%, surpassing the consensus and previous estimates of around 8.6%.
Investment income for the period was reported at $44 million, which is 8% lower than the consensus of $48 million. The final dividend per share (DPS) was $0.18, consistent with consensus estimates and unchanged YoY.
The company also provided an update on the estimated losses from the LA wildfires, projecting an undiscounted loss of $100-140 million, which translates to a 12.5-17.5 percentage point impact on the FY25 combined ratio, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums.
The midpoint of this range, $120 million, represents an 11.4% hit to the year-end 2024 net asset value (NAV), slightly higher than the impact reported last week by a peer company.
Conduit’s solvency ratio was reported at 269%, which includes some adjustments due to the LA wildfires. This figure is above the forecast of 244%, which did not account for the wildfire impact.
Looking ahead, the company provided a cautious outlook for FY25, aiming for a low to mid-teens ROE, assuming reasonable loss activity and investment performance. This forecast is notably lower than the consensus estimate of 19.2%. The company did not provide guidance for the undiscounted combined ratio for FY25, where the consensus stands at 85.5%.
RBC analysts commented on the results, stating, "The FY24 performance and FY25 guide solidify concerns around its nat cat exposure in our view. Capitalisation is still strong with solvency better than our estimate, so this should provide some flexibility to remediate the portfolio."
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