DHL stock jumps 11% as Q4 beats forecasts, 2025 outlook remains cautious

Published 06/03/2025, 10:12
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- DHL Group’s stock surged more than 11% on Thursday following its fourth-quarter results, which exceeded market expectations. 

The logistics company reported an operating profit (EBIT) of €1.85 billion for the quarter, about 4% above consensus estimates, with strong performance in its Express segment helping to drive the gains.

Analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC) noted that the better-than-expected results were mainly due to solid pricing strategies and cost controls within the Express division, where EBIT came in 11% ahead of expectations at €1.08 billion. The company’s overall revenue grew 6% year-over-year, reaching €22.7 billion for the quarter.

Despite the strong finish to 2024, DHL issued a cautious outlook for 2025, forecasting an EBIT of at least €6 billion, which falls short of the market consensus of €6.29 billion. 

The company also adjusted its 2026 EBIT target to a medium-term goal of €7 billion, citing macroeconomic uncertainties. 

"However, we think management taking a more cautious view and removing an overhang from guidance being too high could be also seen as a positive," Barclays said in a note.

"We see this set of results as mixed but supportive for the investment case, opening small up," Barclays added.

In an effort to support its share price and return capital to investors, DHL announced a €3 billion share buyback program spread over 2025 and 2026, equating to €1.5 billion annually. 

This move is expected to boost total cash returns to shareholders, including dividends, to around 8%.

Other business segments delivered mixed results. The Post & Parcel division posted EBIT of €326 million, exceeding expectations by 3%, while the Global Forwarding and Freight division underperformed with EBIT of €255 million, about 7% below consensus. 

The eCommerce segment saw EBIT rise 39% year-over-year to €106 million, ahead of expectations.

Barclays maintains a "neutral" rating on the stock, with a price target of €38, slightly below its latest closing price of €38.77.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.