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Investing.com -- Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Duolingo with an Underweight rating and $239 price target, warning that slowing user growth and waning brand appeal could weigh on the language-learning app’s prospects.
The brokerage noted that Duolingo’s daily active user growth slowed to 40% in the second quarter from 48% in the first, with alternative data pointing to continued weakness in the third quarter.
“We believe user growth issues are likely persistent and as a result see downside to 2027 estimates,” the analysts wrote, adding that they expect subscribers to come in about 10% below Wall Street forecasts.
Wells Fargo said negative commentary around artificial intelligence last year has evolved into broader “apathy on the Duolingo brand,” hurting the effectiveness of its marketing.
Engagement on the company’s U.S. TikTok account has stayed muted, while recent changes to its app features have triggered pushback.
Replacing its “Hearts” system with “Energy” reduced free play credits, and five-star reviews in app stores fell from 60% at the end of 2024 to around 30% by now.
The analysts also said efforts to boost paid subscriptions face resistance, making it harder to convert free users into paying customers. At the same time, Duolingo’s premium “Max” tier, introduced in 2023, has seen adoption slow after early growth, limiting future gains in average revenue per user.
“We expect it will be more difficult to push users out of the free experience in 2026 / 2027,” Wells Fargo wrote. The analysts projects Duolingo’s revenue and profit in 2027 will be 5% to 6% below consensus estimates.