Entain upgraded to “buy” as BetMGM outlook, global tailwinds strengthen

Published 08/07/2025, 11:06
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Entain (LON:ENT) has been upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” by BofA Securities, with its price objective raised from 880p to 1,100p, in a note dated Tuesday. 

The revision is driven by improved visibility on the U.S. business, international regulatory support, and a clearer deleveraging path.

A key factor in the upgrade is a more optimistic view on BetMGM. The joint venture’s valuation has been increased to $7 billion, now based on 2.5x 2025 estimated EV/Sales, up from 2.1x, reflecting stronger projections and a re-rating of peers such as Flutter and DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), which trade at 4.3x. 

BofA forecasts BetMGM will generate $535 million in EBITDA by 2027, compared with the current consensus of $425 million. Continued stability in the U.S. 

iGaming market share and a planned launch in Alberta in early 2026 support this outlook. BetMGM’s 20%+ market share in Ontario is viewed as a favorable precedent for entry into the neighboring province. 

While new tax measures will reduce EBITDA by $30 million, the report notes these are manageable. Analysts also flagged the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which affects gambling loss deductibility, as worth monitoring.

On the international front, New Zealand’s recent and expected regulatory changes are seen as growth catalysts. 

Though the market accounts for just 3% of Entain’s revenue, a ban on unlicensed offshore operators from June 28 and potential iGaming legalization in 2026 are likely to accelerate channelisation and support growth.

Entain’s financial outlook also contributed to the upgrade. Net debt, which rose £1.5 billion from 2021 to 2025, is expected to peak at £3.7 billion in 2026 before falling by £1.7 billion by 2030. 

This decline is projected to be driven by £0.5 billion in organic EBITDA growth, BetMGM dividends to Entain estimated at £1 billion, and deferred prosecution agreement settlements, currently £150 million annually, tapering off after 2027.

Despite a rally in its share price this year, Entain trades at 8x 2025E EV/EBITDA, below the 8.5x average for European peers.

U.S. peers are valued at 22x 2025E P/E for companies forecasting three-year EPS compound annual growth rates above 30%. 

The brokerage notes that the primary risk to the outlook is higher U.K. taxation, but changes are not expected before 2027.

BofA also adjusted its EPS estimates for 2025 to 2027, citing operational improvements across multiple regions and the strengthening financial profile.

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