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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the United States’ Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating at ’AA+’ with a Stable Outlook, citing the country’s large economy and the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency.
The rating agency noted that while the US benefits from its dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility, high fiscal deficits and rising government debt levels constrain the rating. US government debt is more than double the ’AA’ rating median.
Fitch forecasts the general government deficit will narrow to 6.9% of GDP in 2025 from 7.7% in 2024, driven by increased revenues. Federal government revenues are rising due to economic growth, stock market performance, and surging tariff revenues. With the effective tariff rate increasing to an estimated 16% as of August from 2.3% at the end of 2024, tariff revenues are expected to reach $250 billion this year.
The Trump administration has begun implementing its agenda through tax cuts, higher tariffs, increased deportation of illegal immigrants, and reduced federal regulations. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July, extends most provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and expands various tax deductions.
Fitch projects the government debt-to-GDP ratio will continue rising, reaching 124% by the end of 2027, up from 114.5% at the end of 2024. Despite this trajectory, the US government maintains strong financing flexibility due to the dollar’s dominant position in global reserves.
The rating agency forecasts US economic growth to slow to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024, citing higher tariffs, government spending cuts, tighter border controls, and policy uncertainties that have weakened consumer spending and business investment.
Fitch anticipates one 25-basis-point interest rate cut this year, followed by three cuts in 2026, as the Federal Reserve remains cautious due to inflationary pressures from tariff hikes.
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