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Investing.com -- Global smartphone demand is set to contract again in 2026, but foldables, and especially Apple’s long-anticipated entry, will provide a rare bright spot, according to a note from Fubon Research.
Analyst Arthur Liao forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments of 1.2 billion units in 2026, a 4% year-over-year decline.
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He wrote that “China shipment to be 275mn (down 3% YoY)” and expects iPhone shipments to fall “to 234mn (down 4% YoY).”
Rising component costs will add pressure next year, with Fubon noting that “DRAM contract prices are up over 75% compared to 4Q24” and that the total bill of materials for smartphones is “expected to increase by approximately 5-7% in 2026.”
Against this backdrop, Apple’s first foldable iPhone is expected to emerge as the major industry catalyst.
Fubon believes the device’s material costs, particularly the panel, hinge and lightweight components, will push pricing toward the upper end of market expectations.
While rumors range from $2,000 to $2,500, Fubon Research expects the iPhone price to reach “$2,399,” citing supply chain analysis and Apple’s margin needs.
Demand is expected to hinge heavily on this pricing, but Fubon is optimistic. Using a 7% penetration-rate assumption, the firm said “total sales of foldable iPhones over their lifecycle are 15.4mn units,” including “5.4mn units in 2026.”
Apple is also preparing notable camera upgrades for 2026. Fubon said it expects the iPhone 18 series to adopt a “variable aperture lens,” likely supplied solely by Largan due to the technology’s complexity.
Overall, while shipments weaken, Fubon says foldables remain “the only spotlight” in the 2026 smartphone market.