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GLOBAL MARKETS-Bonds reign supreme, equities struggle on recession, Brexit fears

Published 29/08/2019, 04:42
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Bonds reign supreme, equities struggle on recession, Brexit fears
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* Yields on U.S. 30-year bonds, 10-year German bunds at

record low

* Asian shares, U.S. stock futures down about 0.4%

* Gold near 6-year high, silver shines

* Pound hit by no-deal Brexit fears as Johnson suspends

parliament

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Global bond yields flirted with

record lows while stocks struggled to recover on Thursday, as

global recession worries from intensifying U.S.-China frictions

and the spectre of a no-deal Brexit drove investors to safer

harbours.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.38%, Singapore shares .STI hit

eight-month lows, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 shed 0.44%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.65% on Wednesday

due in part to gains in the energy sector following a rebound in

oil prices. But U.S. stock futures lost 0.4% in Asia.

Bond markets around the world painted a gloomier picture,

with yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries and 10-year German bunds

yield both hitting record lows - 1.905 percent US30YT=RR and

minus 0.716 percent DE10YT=TWEB on Wednesday.

Inversion remains a prominent feature across the U.S. yield

curve, where long-dated yields are below short-dated ones, an

unsettling sign as yield curve inversions have been a reliable

leading indicator of future U.S. recessions.

Italy's 10-year bond yield IT10YT=TWEB briefly fell below

1% for the first time ever. The rush to buy Italian debt, which

carries higher yields than the 'core' euro zone countries, was

in part prompted by growing hopes that a new government will

soon be formed in Rome and a new election averted. In Asia, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield

JP10YTN=JBTC dipped 1 basis point to minus 0.285%, just above

its record low of minus 0.300% touched in 2016.

"Falls in global bond yields reflect growing concerns that

long-term global growth is slowing down on U.S.-China tensions

and worries over subsequent global supply chain disruptions,"

said Tomoo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset

Management in Tokyo.

"Stock markets on the other hand are supported in the

near-term by hopes of more stimulus, notably from the Federal

Reserve and the European Central Bank," he said.

The two major central banks are expected to cut rates next

month, while many investors believe the Bank of Japan could join

the fray if market sentiment weakens further.

The Trump administration on Wednesday made official its

extra 5% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports and set

collection dates of Sept. 1 and Dec. 15.

That means products such as smartwatches, Bluetooth

headphones, flat panel televisions and many types of footwear

will be levied from next month, raising worries about U.S.

consumption, one of the few remaining bright spots in the world

economy. The precious metal markets highlighted investors' quest to

buy safer assets.

Gold XAU= rose 0.17% to $1,541.3 per ounce, near six-year

highs of $1,556.1 set earlier in the week while silver XAU=

extended its bull run and rose 0.85% to fetch $18.32 per ounce,

edging near its 2017 peak.

Sharp falls in bond yields, however, have some investors

worried that the recent rally in bond prices may have gone too

The 30-year U.S. bond yield, now at 1.921%, has fallen 60

basis points so far this month, to slip below dividend yield of

U.S. shares, which stood at 2.04%.

"Yields may have fallen to unjustifiable levels even if one

bets on a long-term stagnation in the global economy. And when

we had a major bond correction in Europe four years ago, the

adjustment was quite sharp," said Yoshinori Shigemi, global

market strategist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Asset Management in Tokyo.

In the currency market, the yen gained 0.2% to 105.90 per

dollar JPY= while the New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 slipped 0.4%

to four-year lows on grim domestic business sentiment data.

The euro was steady at $1.1084 EUR= .

The MSCI emerging market currency index .MIEM00000CUS is

at its lowest levels since mid-November, having fallen 0.9% so

far this week and on course to mark its biggest monthly fall in

more than seven years driven by worries about a global slowdown.

The British pound licked its wounds at $1.2200 GBP= ,

having slumped 0.61% the previous day as the most serious UK

political crisis in decades deepened after Prime Minister Boris

Johnson decided to suspend Britain's parliament for more than a

month before Brexit.

The move will limit the time opponents have to derail a

disorderly Brexit but also increases the chance that Johnson

could face a vote of no-confidence in his government, and

possibly an election. "From an economic point of view, actively pursuing a no-deal

Brexit through suspending parliament is tantamount to actively

pursuing a recession," said Seema Shah, Chief Strategist,

Principal Global Investors in London.

Concerns about Brexit are already taking a toll on Europe,

with the recent export slump in Germany driven mainly by weaker

sales to Britain rather than the broader trade war. Oil prices held firm after a gain of nearly 2% in the

previous session as a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude

stockpiles helped ease worries about weakening oil demand.

In Asia Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell 0.1% to $60.43 a

barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1

gained 0.18% to $55.88 per barrel.

S&P dividend yield vs 30-yr U.S. Treasury https://tmsnrt.rs/2zqVAu7

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