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GLOBAL MARKETS-Risk on, risk off, repeat! US-China trade deal faces HK hurdle

Published 21/11/2019, 13:01
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Risk on, risk off, repeat! US-China trade deal faces HK hurdle
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* European stocks in red on trade deal worries

* U.S. stock futures fall 0.1%, Asia shares down

* Trump seen signing HK bills, looks set to anger Beijing

* Trade deal seen delayed into next year - sources

* China invites U.S. trade negotiators for talks - report

* U.S. bond yield, yuan at 3-week low

By Thyagaraju Adinarayan

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Stocks slid further on Thursday

as the standoff between the world's two largest economies

expanded beyond trade, reducing the odds of a "phase-one" deal

this year and forcing investors to shed risky assets.

Investors had widely hoped for a U.S.-China trade deal by

mid-November but the absence of one, and Washington's bill to

support protesters in Hong Kong, has brought progress grinding

to a halt. With U.S. President Donald Trump seen as likely to sign the

bill, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said this "could risk

progress towards a phase one trade deal".

European shares nevertheless bounced back from day lows in

late morning trade as fresh reports emerged that China has

invited top U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of

face-to-face talks in Beijing.

The trade-sensitive German blue-chip .GDAXI index was down

0.2%, recovering from a 0.7% fall, after the Wall Street Journal

reported Beijing hopes the round of talks can take place before

next Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

U.S. S&P 500 futures ESc1 were marginally down, having

dropped as much as 0.6% in Asian trade. The S&P 500 had hit a

record high as recently as Tuesday on trade deal hopes, but

Washington's move on Hong Kong derailed the rally.

"The cracks in equity market sentiment widened a little

further yesterday, although this setback remains modest in the

context of the index gains enjoyed so far in Q4," said Ian

Williams, economics & strategy research analyst at Peel Hunt.

Trade experts and people close to the White House said

completion of a "phase one" U.S.-China trade deal could slide

into next year, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff

rollbacks and the Trump administration counters with demands of

its own. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, also the chief trade

negotiator, said he was "cautiously optimistic" on a phase one

deal, according to a report by Bloomberg.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 1.1% to a near three-week lows, with Hong

Kong's Hang Seng .HSI tumbling 1.6% while Japan's Nikkei

.N225 dropped 0.5%. Chinese mainland shares dropped 0.3%

.SSEC .

Investors who had sought the safety of government bonds, the

yen and gold in early trade shifted back from those positions

after China reportedly invited U.S. negotiators for talks.

"Our short-term strategy remains fairly cautious, as markets

are very narrowly driven -- every positive piece of news in

trade negotiations sends markets higher, while any

disappointment sinks," said Marija Veitmane, Senior Strategist

at State Street Global Markets.

"This makes it very hard for investors to build positions in

risk trades."

Spot gold XAU= reversed gains to trade 0.2% lower at

$1,468.91 per ounce as of 1127 GMT.

German government bond yields DE10YT=RR -- which move

inversely to price -- bounced back from two-week lows, while the

10-year U.S. Treasuries yield rose to 1.7551% US10YT=RR , off

three-week lows touched earlier in the day.

The Chinese yuan meanwhile cut some losses after hitting

three-week lows, and were last trading at 7.0210 to the dollar

CNY=CFXS in onshore trade.

The Japanese yen JPY= , which rallied almost 1% from more

than five-month lows, was flat against the greenback.

The euro gained slightly and was last trading at $1.1083

EUR= ahead of the release of minutes of the European Central

Bank's most recent policy meeting.

Oil prices dipped, paring some of the 2% gains made on

Wednesday after a better-than-expected U.S. crude inventories

report and as Russia said it would continue its cooperation with

OPEC to keep the market balanced.

Global benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 dropped 0.4% to

$62.08. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1

were down 0.4% at $56.73 per barrel in early Thursday trade.

Global markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2KG7whL

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(Editing by William Maclean and Catherine Evans)

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